Nuclear stocks of all stripes hopped higher in unison on Tuesday. As of 10:40 a.m. ET, mini-nuclear-reactor start-up Oklo (OKLO 2.49%) is up 2%, while rival small modular reactor maker NuScale Power Corporation (SMR -0.25%) is doing even better, up 8.6%. Canadian uranium miner Cameco Corporation (CCJ -0.19%) stock is also up a solid 5.8%.
You can thank investment banker Goldman Sachs for this in large part, and President Trump in the other part.
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What Goldman is saying about nuclear power stocks
On Friday, President Trump signed multiple executive orders aiming to accelerate the development of nuclear power plant construction and nuclear power adoption in the United States, as TheFly.com reports today. Commenting on the developments, Goldman Sachs highlighted two stocks in particular as benefiting from the series of executive orders, which cover everything from promoting domestic uranium mining and refinement to removing regulatory obstacles on nuclear power plant construction and the restarting of existing plants that have been idled.
Those two stocks are Cameco and NuScale Power.
As for Oklo stock, Goldman didn't highlight that one (but it's a pretty obvious corollary play on the Goldman note). Instead, Oklo is getting its own boost today after announcing that it has signed a memorandum of understanding with Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power whereby Oklo and Korea Hydro will jointly advance development and verification of Oklo's planned Aurora powerhouse at the same time that Korea Hydro develops its own "innovative domestic advanced nuclear technology, the i-SMR."
Oklo already plans to run a 75 megawatt Aurora powerhouse at the Idaho National Laboratory site, and "intends to submit a formal Combined License Application (COLA) later this year" to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The company says it also has more than 14 gigawatts of nuclear power plants in its "growing order pipeline."
The company has not yet received licenses to build these plants, however.
Which nuclear stock should you buy (if any)?
Reading between the lines, Oklo's press release this morning leans "fluffy" to me, describing more of a continued research and development status for the start-up, albeit now in cooperation with a big player in the industry. It's relatively good news for the stock, as Korea Hydro boasts an $11 billion annual revenue stream (versus Oklo's annual revenue of zero), which can help support Oklo's R&D efforts as it works toward commercialization of its technology.
But I wouldn't consider that, in and of itself, a reason to buy the stock.
I'm more intrigued by Goldman Sachs' endorsement of NuScale Power, which regularly reminds investors that it boasts "the first and only SMR [small modular reactor] to have its design certified by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission." NuScale's own revenues are de minimis at present, with less than $50 million expected this year and no profits anticipated before 2030 at the earliest, making the stock still speculative in my book -- but at least it's ahead of Oklo in this race.
Perhaps the closest thing we've got to an "investable" stock in this space is Cameco. Valued in excess of $26 billion, it's bigger than Oklo and NuScale combined, and it has a well-established business in mining and importing uranium for use as nuclear fuel. Annual revenue at Cameco approaches $2.4 billion, and the company is profitable, with $181 million earned over the last 12 months -- and a respectable $504 million in annual free cash flow.
That still leaves even Cameco trading at a price-to-free cash flow ratio of more than 50, however.
Is that justified if the U.S. ends up going full nuclear and converting much of its power generation to atomic power? I suppose it's possible, but I personally consider it a stretch. To be painfully blunt, at today's prices, I honestly don't see a lot of potential for profit for investors in this industry, and I'd suggest you look elsewhere for bargains.
That is, unless you plan to base your investment strategy on irrational exuberance.
