Commodity chemical giant Dow Inc. (DOW 1.50%) is hovering around a five-year low and is now down around 50% from its spin-off price when DowDuPont split into three separate companies in April 2019.
Dow has kept its dividend the same for the last six years. But since the stock has been beaten down so much, Dow's yield has jumped to a whopping 10.3% at the time of this writing -- making it the highest-yielding component in the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.58%).
Here's why Dow's challenges persist and why the dividend stock could be worth buying now, even if the company reduces its payout.
Image source: Getty Images.
An industrywide downturn
Dow makes commodity chemicals -- mainly plastics and synthetic rubber. Dow has hundreds of products that are used either directly or indirectly across virtually every industry in the economy -- from electronics to food and beverage packing, textiles, construction, industrial applications, healthcare, cosmetics, household products like detergents and dish soaps, and more.
Since these products are commodities, they lack pricing power. This is similar to the dynamic in oil and gas, where a gallon of unleaded gasoline sold at ExxonMobil is virtually the same as a gallon sold at Chevron. Consumers will largely make a purchase decision based on price, not brand. So Dow must achieve scale and operating leverage to ensure it can produce products at a competitive cost relative to its peers.
Economic growth typically coincides with higher commodity chemical demand. But lately, two factors have been working against Dow. Demand is low across several end markets due to higher borrowing costs from elevated interest rates and slowing economic growth in key markets -- namely Europe.
Another major challenge is competition. China has been ramping up investments in manufactured goods -- from chemicals to solar panels -- to take market share on the global stage. If China can produce chemicals sold by Dow for a cheaper price, it can undercut Dow on pricing.
Dow is also working to become a more sustainable company by investing in plastic waste recycling and the world's first net-zero emissions integrated ethylene cracker -- known as its Path2Zero project in Alberta, Canada. However, on its first-quarter 2025 earnings call, Dow said that it is pausing Path2Zero to reduce its spending. Dow estimates that the pause will save the company $1 billion and reduce enterprise spending to $2.5 billion from $3.5 billion.
NYSE: DOW
Key Data Points
Dow is struggling to afford its dividend
Dow's latest quarter showed some signs of improvement, as it was the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year volume growth. But net sales still fell 3% due to a lack of pricing power -- which illustrates that demand is improving but competition is challenging.
Dow's operating margin has gone from pre-pandemic levels around 8%, to 2022 highs in the mid-teens, to just 3.3% currently.
As you can see in the chart, Dow's stock price is under pressure due to declining revenue and margins. The company's profit margin, which accounts for interest and taxes, is less than 1%. Dow is converting just $0.69 for every $100 in sales into profit -- which is unsustainable.
It's also worth mentioning that Dow is free-cash-flow (FCF) negative, meaning that its operations can't support its dividend expense, so it has to rely on other means, such as debt.
Raising cash
Since Dow isn't producing enough cash or earnings to cover its dividend, it can either sell assets, pull back on spending, take on more debt, cut the payout, or a blend of multiple ideas.
As mentioned, Dow did pause its Path2Zero project, which could reduce its long-term earnings growth but will save on near-term expenses. On May 1, Dow completed the sale of a 40% equity stake in Diamond Infrastructure Solutions, which has infrastructure assets along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The sale netted Dow with $2.4 billion in initial cash proceeds, with the potential for $600 million more in proceeds if an option is exercised.
Dow spent $494 million on dividends in its recent quarter, so the sale alone can cover the dividend expense for roughly five quarters. But selling assets or taking on debt to cover dividends is like plugging holes in a sinking ship. A preferred approach is to get the ship afloat -- or back to higher margins and consistent FCF -- so that operations can cover the dividend, and ideally, still have cash left over to pay down debt or buy back stock.
In addition to savings from Path2Zero and the asset sale, Dow is also receiving around $1 billion in proceeds from a court settlement, and $1 billion in targeted cost savings by 2026, including $300 million in 2025. All told, Dow is on track to receive around $6 billion in additional cash or cost savings, most of which is coming this year.
It's also worth mentioning that Dow has just $500 million in debt maturing in 2025 and no substantial debt maturities until 2027. So for now, its debt seems manageable. However, if Dow's margins remain depressed, it will have few choices but to cut the dividend.
Dow's 10.3% yield is so high that the company could cut the payout by two-thirds and Dow would still yield 3.4% -- which is a solid source of passive income. When asked about the dividend on Dow's first-quarter earnings call, management responded that the cash and cost savings will help support the dividend, but that the situation is evolving and Dow will have to continue monitoring tariffs and macro factors.
A turnaround stock for the patient and the brave
Dow may be a worthwhile turnaround play for investors who aren't banking on its dividend yield staying above 10%. If the company can use its cash proceeds wisely and continue managing its expenses, it could help weather the storm until economic conditions improve. However, it remains to be seen how Dow will hold up against the competition, even during a more normal operating environment.
Dow has a long-term goal to have its dividend make up 45% of operating income. If Dow can get its operating margin back around the 8% to 9% range or if it cuts its dividend in half, it should be around that goal -- assuming it doesn't lose more pricing power. And if Dow can gradually improve its margins, the stock will begin to look dirt cheap.
In sum, Dow has the cash and lack of debt obligations to afford its dividend in 2025. Going forward, I expect the company to cut its dividend at least in half or maybe by two-thirds if conditions don't improve, or it may decide to sustain the payout if there's a significant recovery in macro conditions. Risk-tolerant investors may want to scoop up shares of Dow now, with the stock at multiyear lows. In contrast, other investors may want to take a wait-and-see approach to Dow, as the next year will be pivotal in determining whether the company overcomes its present challenges or goes through with a dividend cut.
