Nvidia (NVDA +2.59%) has remained one of the most popular stocks in the market even after its unprecedented run-up since 2023. The demand for Nvidia's best-in-class graphics processing units (GPUs) hasn't let up because AI computing capacity hasn't come close to being fulfilled. There's plenty of upside left in the stock, but the next milestone is a $200 share price.
Currently, Nvidia hovers around $145, but it has broken $150 before. This means the stock needs to rise about 40% to reach $200, but can it do that by the end of 2026?
Image source: Nvidia.
GPU growth is far from over
A $200 share price would mean that it would have a market cap close to $5 trillion. There's never been a $4 trillion company, let alone a $5 trillion one. So if it hits $200 and continues to rise just a bit, it would make a record along the way.
But that's what the stock has been about over the past few years. We've never seen a company of Nvidia's size grow as rapidly as it has, let alone sustain that growth over a three-year time span. In the 2026 fiscal first quarter (ended April 28), revenue rose 69% year over year to $44.1 billion, and second-quarter growth is expected to be about 50% year over year.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
This is all because of the vast demand it is experiencing. GPUs have become the computing hardware of choice for AI models, mainly due to their ability to handle intense workloads.
They can process multiple calculations in parallel, and units can be combined in clusters to amplify that effect. This allows these data centers to train AI models on vast data sets that would take years for a traditional PC to process.
Even though demand for Nvidia's GPUs is already high, it's expected to increase even more over the next few years. The AI hyperscalers have announced record spending for this year.
But building a data center is a multiyear task. As a result, investors shouldn't be surprised if the AI hyperscalers announce further increases over this year's already elevated levels.
This backs up a third-party projection management cited during its 2025 GTC event that data center capital expenditures were $400 billion in 2024 and are expected to increase to $1 trillion by 2028. If this comes true, the chipmaker's rapid growth will continue.
Nvidia's business has the fuel to continue growing, but can it hit $200 per share by 2026?
A $200 stock price isn't out of the question
There are a few ways to calculate a future stock price. You could start at $200 and see what growth assumptions are built into that, or you could assume a valuation and apply expected increases, then check to see if that works with the stock price target. I prefer the latter method since it allows you to get an estimated stock price, even if it isn't the answer you expected.
Wall Street analysts expect $200 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026 and nearly $250 billion for fiscal 2027, indicating 53% and 25% revenue growth, respectively. Should the $250 billion revenue increase occur and the company has a profit margin of 50% (it's currently 52% but has been as high as 55%), then it would produce $125 billion in profit.
Nvidia's share count has decreased over the past few years, but let's assume that today's share count is the same by the end of 2026. If that were the case, earnings per share (EPS) would be $5.12.
Lastly, let's examine Nvidia's historical valuation to determine whether a $200 share price is reasonable.
NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts; PE = price to earnings.
Nvidia's stock currently trades at 46 times trailing earnings. If we bumped that multiple down to 40 (to compensate for slowing growth), the stock price at the end of next year would be about $205.
So, even with a few conservative estimates baked into the stock price (falling margins and a decreasing earnings multiple), Nvidia's stock would still have the growth necessary to hit $200 by the end of 2026. That makes it a smart buy, since the returns it would provide investors over the next year will likely crush the market.
