Walmart (WMT -0.01%) has been having an exceptionally strong run over the past few years as it demonstrates strength in a volatile economy. The world's largest company by sales continues to grow, fending off competition from new upstarts and increasing its presence in e-commerce.
Let's see why it's a winner, and where it might be five years from now.
Image source: Walmart.
The biggest company in the world
Walmart has climbed to the top the old-fashioned way: it sells products cheaply. In today's world of fast technology, it's worth noting that no other company, including Amazon, has been able to wrestle away Walmart's hold on the top spot in global sales.
However, it might not be that way five years from now. Walmart has trailing 12-month revenue of $685 billion. This is how sales have increased over the past four quarters:
| Metric | Q1 26 | Q4 25 | Q3 25 | Q2 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales growth | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% |
Data source: Walmart quarterly reports.
Let's suppose it can grow sales at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% over the next five years. At the end, it will have $794 billion. That seems like a doable feat. If Amazon is able to keep up its own rates, though, it should surpass that over the next five years. If Amazon's sales increase at a CAGR of 9% over the next five years, it will be the first company to reach $1 trillion in sales. Somewhere along that path, Amazon is likely to take over.
E-commerce and innovation
There are many factors that will affect how this plays out. Walmart was late to the e-commerce game, and it's become a formidable player in the arena only recently. It already has the second-largest e-commerce share in the U.S., according to Statista, at around 6.4%. But its e-commerce sales are growing faster than Amazon's. Walmart is also growing fast internationally. Total e-commerce sales increased 22% year over year in the 2026 fiscal first quarter (ended April 30), with a 21% increase in the U.S.
It's using its more than 4,600 U.S. stores as pickup and delivery hubs, a warehouse alternative that other companies can't match in terms of sheer numbers. Stores are also excellent points for last-mile delivery and ease of access for pickup orders. CEO Doug McMillon said that it's nearing being able to reach 95% of the U.S. population within three or four hours, and in China and India, it's already talking about reaching customers within minutes.
The company has many other tricks up its sleeve to stay relevant and boost sales despite its already huge size. It continues to find places to open new stores, and it's adding new products that appeal to different shoppers. One way it's doing that is by offering some premium lines that are bringing more affluent customers into stores.
However, Walmart is also committed to its low prices, and it's been able to deftly manage changes in tariffs through its leverage with suppliers. Based on recent changes, the company said it might have to raise some prices in the short term, but it's not changing any of its long-term ideas. It's also committed to increasing profits more rapidly than sales, ensuring a smoothly run business. Here's how operating income has increased over the past four quarters.
| Metric | Q1 26 | Q4 25 | Q3 25 | Q2 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income growth | 4.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% |
Data source: Walmart quarterly reports.
The dividend
Walmart recently became a Dividend King, and it has increased its dividend for 52 consecutive years. It's not a high-yielding dividend, with a 0.9% yield, but it is reliable and growing. With the company's commitment to growing its profits, it should be able to keep that up for the next five years and much longer.
Walmart is slow-growing, but it's beating the market over the past year, up 40% versus 13% for the S&P 500. That trend was present over the past five years, although the difference is not as wide (133% versus 111%). The market has been prizing Walmart's resilience and stability through a challenging economy over the past few years.
Over the next five years, Walmart may continue to outperform the market, but I wouldn't count that as a given. However, its reliability, strength, and dividend make it an excellent value play if you're looking to fill that spot in your portfolio.
