Ahead of Microsoft's (MSFT -0.33%) quarterly earnings release on July 30, many investors are likely looking closely at their shares of the software giant. After all, the stock has seen an incredible run recently. Shares are up 42% from April 21 to July 17. Not only has the stock benefited from a sharp V-shaped recovery following a tariff-related sell-off that impacted much of the market, but it has also risen to a new all-time high. The problem? The valuation is now questionably rich.
To the company's credit, it's seeing impressive business momentum. Revenue and profit are both rising at double-digit rates, and the company appears well positioned to benefit from tailwinds in artificial intelligence (AI) -- both in terms of increased demand for its AI-related services and cost efficiencies as AI boosts employee productivity.
But the big question is whether the stock has risen too far, too fast. Clearly, the company has great momentum. But has a sky-high valuation already priced in the bull case for this stock?
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Accelerating growth
Microsoft's fiscal third-quarter results from late April (its most recently reported quarter) capture how well the company is doing -- and why investors are bidding shares higher. Revenue rose 13% year over year -- an acceleration from 12% growth in fiscal Q2. Notably, when adjusting for foreign exchange, fiscal third-quarter revenue actually rose 15% year over year. Additionally, operating income grew even faster, rising 16%, or 19% in constant currency.
"Cloud and AI are the essential inputs for every business to expand output, reduce costs, and accelerate growth," said Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella in the company's fiscal third-quarter earnings release. "From AI infra and platforms to apps, we are innovating across the stack to deliver for our customers."
Driving the quarter's results was a 21% year-over-year increase in revenue from the company's intelligent cloud segment. Included in this segment is the company's cloud-computing business, Azure. The cloud-powering infrastructure systems and software segment contributed 33% year-over-year revenue growth.
But slower-growing segments still did well. For instance, Microsoft's revenue from its productivity and business processes segment rose 10% year over year, helped by growing Microsoft 365 subscriptions.
High expectations
Such broad-based strength, driven by lucrative software and services, makes a compelling case for the company's long-term growth potential. But with shares now trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of nearly 40, is the valuation simply too high?
Given the stock's recent run-up, investors shouldn't get too excited. On the one hand, Microsoft's balanced business clearly deserves a high valuation multiple. After all, the company has a healthy balance sheet, a strong suite of products, and is seeing double-digit top- and bottom-line growth. However, a price-to-earnings ratio of 40 seems to price in plenty of optimism.
Altogether, I'd lean more toward calling the stock a hold instead of a buy at the stock's current price. One reason I'm comfortable with this view, despite the stock's high valuation, is that the company takes some risk off the table every quarter by paying investors a quarterly dividend.
Microsoft is a great dividend stock. Though its dividend yield is just 0.7%, there's plenty of room for this dividend payment to grow over time. This is evident by the fact that the company is paying out less than 25% of its earnings in dividends. Additionally, if history is any indication of the future, more dividend increases are likely. The company has increased its dividend every year for 23 years straight.
Also helping the bull case is Microsoft's share repurchase program. With plenty of excess cash, the company is aggressively buying back its stock. Combining its dividends and repurchases, the company spent $9.7 billion returning capital to shareholders in fiscal Q3, up 15% year over year.
Overall, Microsoft shares may not be a great buy at their current price. On the other hand, the company is giving shareholders plenty of reasons to hold onto their shares. But given the stock's premium valuation, shareholders should expect a bumpy ride.
