Investors often talk about growth stocks in terms of their cyclical growth (tied to the economy) and secular growth (benefiting from a structural and fundamental change in an industry). The distinction is beneficial to understand when looking at machine vision company Cognex (CGNX 0.78%).
Cognex has a big future
It's no secret that the increasing adoption of technologies like automation and machine vision is the key to modern manufacturing, particularly in reshoring it from countries with lower labor costs. In addition, machine vision's ability to perform repetitive tasks in assembly lines and logistics -- guiding, monitoring, inspecting, and controlling processes more effectively than the human eye -- is a significant plus.
Also, consider the potential of deep learning through artificial intelligence (AI). For example, Cognex's software can learn from "right " and "wrong" examples given to it, enabling the hardware to identify anomalies in production. As such, Cognex is also a way to play the AI evolution, as it will significantly enhance the value-add of its solutions.
Cognex and interest rates
All of the above is an example of secular growth. However, like almost all companies, Cognex also relies on cyclical growth. Furthermore, its exposure to capital spending in interest-rate-sensitive areas, like automotives (notably electric vehicle batteries) and consumer electronics (Apple has been a significant customer in the past), leaves it exposed to the ups and downs of the economy.
When the economy is booming, auto and electronics companies are willing to make expansionary capital spending decisions, and when it's weak, cutting capital spending is often the first thing companies look to do.
Image source: Getty Images.
Unfortunately, the relatively high interest rates have hit Cognex's overall growth prospects, even as it grows its AI solutions by embedding more AI/deep learning into its solutions. If and when interest rates do move lower, there's likely to be some spending due from automakers and electronics companies as end demand at least stabilizes, and they need to invest in new product development. That will benefit Cognex. All told, the combination of secular and cyclical growth makes Cognex an excellent stock to buy ahead of a rate cut.
