The electric vehicle (EV) industry holds a lot of promise, but it's also facing significant headwinds. Rising materials costs because of tariffs, an uncertain economy, and lackluster consumer demand are making it harder for EVs to be successful.
But during this time of transition, it's not a bad idea to consider which companies are leaders in the EV space and how their current dominance could boost their stock in the coming years, after market conditions improve.
That's why it's worth assessing the positions of Ford (F -0.22%) and Tesla (TSLA 2.85%) right now. Both are automotive powerhouses in their own right, but which is the better long-term EV stock? Let's have a look.
A Tesla Model Y. Image source: Tesla.
The EV advantage: Tesla
It's no surprise that Tesla has the EV advantage, considering the company started as an EV maker and didn't have to transition to the industry the same way Ford did. But it's important to note just how far ahead Tesla is as an EV leader, compared to Ford.
Out of the top 10 best-selling EVs in the U.S. so far this year, three of them are Teslas -- the Cybertruck, the Model Y, and the Model 3 -- and the company takes the top two spots on the list. In total, it has sold an estimated 721,000 EVs in the U.S. in the first half of this year.
Ford has an impressive two models on the best-selling EV list: the Lightning pickup and the Mustang Mach-E. But where Tesla and Ford diverge is in how many EVs they sell, with Ford coming up woefully short at just 47,200 in the first seven months of this year. That amounts to Tesla selling more than 15 times the number of EVs Ford currently sells.
I will add, though, that Tesla's sales are severely slumping. The company's vehicle deliveries are down 13% from the year-ago quarter. It's still on top, but it clearly has its work cut out for it if it wants to stay there. Ford, for its part, is experiencing a slowdown, too, with EV sales down 10%.
The long-term innovation advantage: Tesla
Tesla's brand is suffering right now, mostly in response to CEO Elon Musk's past involvement overseeing the Department of Government Efficiency and his polarizing political views, both of which have contributed to Musk being distracted from managing the company.
Despite this, the company is looking to a future that involves far more than EVs. It says it is already producing 5,000 Optimus humanoid robots this year and has launched a limited robotaxi service that's part of Musk's broader vision for autonomous vehicles.
Both of these businesses are potentially lucrative but are still in their early form. For example, humanoid robotics will be worth an estimated $5 trillion by 2050, according to Morgan Stanley.
Meanwhile, Ford is still trying to get a handle on EVs. CEO Jim Farley said recently that the company "plans to design and build a breakthrough electric vehicle and platform in the U.S." next year.
I give a lot of leeway to automakers right now as they try to figure out the best course of action in a difficult selling environment. But if I had to choose between buying the stock of a company that's already successful with EVs (and expanding into new, innovative markets) and an automaker that's still trying to figure out electric vehicles, I'm going to choose the former.
Verdict: Tesla wins, but maybe hold off on buying just yet
Just because one company is better than another at doing something -- in this case, making and selling EVs -- doesn't automatically make its stock a buy. Tesla has some serious hurdles to clear over the next few years, including ensuring Musk is laser-focused on managing the company, turning around EV sales, and (eventually?) launching a new vehicle model.
So, if you're bent on buying an EV stock and you're only deciding between Tesla and Ford, then I would certainly go with Tesla. But just know that the company's sales and earnings are on the decline right now, and it could take a while before things turn around.
