Oklo (OKLO 0.62%), a producer of microreactors for nuclear plants, went on a wild ride after it went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) last May. It started trading at $15.50 on its first day, sank to an all-time low of $5.59 less than four months later, but now trades at about $75.
That was an impressive multibagger run, but Oklo still hasn't reached Wall Street's top price target of $86, which was set by Daiwa Securities analyst Dennis Ip last month. Should you accumulate Oklo's stock as it trades below that price? Let's review its business model, growth potential, and valuations to decide.
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How does Oklo plan to reinvent nuclear power plants?
Oklo's main product is Aurora, a microreactor that only generates 1.5 MWe of power. By comparison, a traditional large nuclear reactor produces about 1,000 MWe of power.
Oklo's microreactors can be chained together to generate up to 15 to 100 MWe of power. That flexibility makes them well-suited for remote and off-grid systems. They also use metallic uranium fuel pellets, which are denser, more resistant to higher temperatures, and cheaper to fabricate than the uranium dioxide fuel pellets used in traditional nuclear reactors. They can also be reprocessed and recycled in a closed loop for about a decade without being refueled, while traditional reactors must be refueled every two years.
The company's innovations could reshape modern nuclear power plants. It started working with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to greenlight those plans in 2016, and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) approved its permit to build its first reactor in Idaho in 2019. It attracted even more attention over the past year because Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, previously served as its CEO and chairman.
Why is Oklo a difficult stock to value?
Oklo's plans sound promising, but it doesn't expect to generate any revenue until it deploys its first microreactors in Idaho in late 2027. Until then, analysts expect it to rack up net losses of $64 million in 2025 and $76 million in 2026. That's a wobbly outlook for a company that ended its latest quarter with just $90 million in cash and equivalents.
On the bright side, Oklo's low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.1 still gives it ample room to raise fresh cash with more debt offerings. It's only increased its number of outstanding shares by 14% since its public debut, so it can still issue more shares to boost its liquidity if its coffers run dry.
If Oklo successfully deploys its microreactors in Idaho, analysts expect it to generate $13 million in revenue in 2027 as it slightly narrows its net loss to $73 million. But with a market cap of $11.7 billion, it trades like a meme stock at 899 times its 2027 sales.
According to Zion Market Research, the global microreactor market could expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.1% from 2025 to 2034 as the world's population growth, a climate-driven shift toward green energy solutions, and the rapid expansion of the power-hungry cloud and AI markets drive more countries to retire their traditional nuclear reactors.
But even if Oklo starts generating revenue in 2027 and grows its top line at a robust CAGR of 20% over the following seven years, its annual revenue would only rise to $47 million. It's already valued at 249 times that estimate, so its upside potential seems limited. That might be why its insiders were net sellers over the past 12 months.
Therefore, I think the bulls are too optimistic about Oklo's future, even if its microreactors can eventually reshape the nuclear industry. For now, investors should avoid it and stick with more promising nuclear plays like Cameco or NuScale Power -- which are both generating stable revenue and trading at more reasonable valuations.
