Artificial intelligence (AI) has stolen the limelight over the past few years, and there's plenty of evidence to suggest this is just the beginning. Developers continue to create new applications for the technology, which is being leveraged to produce original content, streamline business processes, and enhance productivity. Despite making headlines for more than two years, it's still early days for the adoption of AI, and the evidence suggests spending continues to ramp up.
In fact, the four horsemen of technology -- namely Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms -- are poised to collectively spend more than $400 billion for the capital expenditures required to support their AI ambitions this year, and these outlays show no signs of slowing.
With data center spending at the top of the shopping list, Nvidia (NVDA -0.85%) is positioned to reap the rewards of much of that spending. The company pioneered the graphics processing units (GPUs) that perform the mathematical calculations required to enable AI, and I predict it will parlay the unrelenting demand for those chips into charter membership in the $6 trillion club.
Image source: Getty Images.
A GPU primer
Nvidia pioneered the first GPU back in 1999 to render lifelike images in video games. The groundbreaking development that made that possible was parallel processing, which breaks up massive computing jobs into smaller, more manageable chunks. This enabled the simultaneous processing of a multitude of mathematical computations, making Nvidia's chips a game-changer.
This was just the beginning of the journey for the humble GPU, which proved adept at enabling or accelerating other applications, including those in the cloud or data centers, where the majority of AI processing takes place. Nvidia has become the gold standard for data center GPUs, controlling an eye-watering 92% of the market, according to business intelligence firm IoT Analytics.
The feverish demand for these specialty chips has driven Nvidia's financial results and its stock price into the stratosphere.
Show me the money
In its fiscal 2026 first quarter (ended April 27), Nvidia generated record revenue of $44 billion, which surged 69% year over year and 12% sequentially. This fueled adjusted earnings per share (EPS) that jumped 27% to $0.76. The headliner was the data center business, which includes processors used for cloud computing, data centers, and AI. Revenue for the segment surged 73% to $39 billion, driven by relentless demand for AI.
This could be just the beginning. Big Four accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) estimates the AI market could be worth $15.7 trillion by 2030, with Nvidia being a major beneficiary by supplying the cutting-edge chips that underpin the technology.
The path to $6 trillion
Nvidia currently boasts the world's highest market cap for a publicly traded company, at roughly $4.44 trillion (as of this writing). This means its stock price would need to rise 35% to drive its value to $6 trillion. According to Wall Street, Nvidia is poised to generate revenue of more than $201 billion in fiscal 2026 (which began in January), giving it a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 22. Assuming its P/S remains constant, Nvidia would need to increase its revenue to roughly $272 billion annually to support a $6 trillion market cap.
Wall Street forecasts estimate that Nvidia will grow its revenue by 53% this year and 25% next year. If the company can attain those benchmarks, it could reach a $6 trillion market cap as early as 2027.
But don't take my word for it. Loop Capital analyst Ananda Baruah has just issued a Street-high price target of $250 on Nvidia stock, suggesting it could reach a market cap of $6.1 trillion over the next 12 to 18 months. The analyst cited supply chain checks and concluded that hyperscale adoption of generative AI and AI factories could generate spending of $2 trillion by 2028, with Nvidia as a major beneficiary. Given the widespread adoption of AI, I believe Baruah's call is prescient.
It's important to remember that these gains won't come in a straight line. A review of Nvidia's charts reveals that the stock price has fallen 25% or more from its peak on at least five separate occasions, and in one case, it plunged 66%.
On the other hand, it would be difficult to overstate the company's success. Despite the aforementioned volatility, over the past decade, Nvidia's revenue has grown by 3,735%, while its net income has surged 13,911%. Furthermore, the company's relentless innovation and improving financial performance have fueled a blistering increase in its stock price, which has soared 30,870%.
Nvidia is currently selling for 31 times next year's earnings, which is certainly a premium. However, given its impressive track record, consistent execution, and the significant opportunity represented by AI, I'd argue it's a small price to pay for such a high-quality company.
