After a couple of years of rapid growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, PayPal (PYPL 3.43%) ran out of steam as the world returned to normalcy. And its stock fell sharply. Even now, PayPal is 78% below its all-time high, which it reached in 2021.
However, PayPal's new leadership team has done a great job of focusing on efficiency and returning the business to a decent level of growth. In the second quarter, PayPal's total payment volume grew 6% year over year, revenue grew 5%, and thanks to efficiency improvements, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) grew by 18%.
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Lots of future potential
While the recent growth has been modest, there's a lot going on behind the scenes. Earlier this year, PayPal's leaders shared their future vision, and to name just a few highlights:
- PayPal sees a massive opportunity to monetize Venmo better, and this is already taking shape, as Venmo's revenue is now growing at a 20%+ rate.
- PayPal has a tremendous amount of consumer data and is leveraging this to build an advertising platform.
- The company ultimately wants to combine all its platforms (PayPal, Venmo, Braintree, etc.) into one.
- In-store payments are a massive growth opportunity and a priority for management. PayPal currently has less than 1% of this market, and it's a $200 billion annual revenue opportunity.
These are just a few of the ways PayPal's management believes it can accelerate growth and produce a 20% annual earnings growth rate in the not-too-distant future.
In the meantime, however, the stock is priced for virtually no expected growth. PayPal expects $6 billion to $7 billion in free cash flow (FCF) this year, which means the stock trades for just 10 times FCF.
The bottom line is that if PayPal can deliver on its growth ambitions, it could be a massive success for investors who buy at these levels. If not, it's still a highly profitable industry leader that generates tons of cash.
