Currently, Nvidia (NVDA 2.13%) is the world's largest company, with a market cap of $4.2 trillion. So, predicting that a stock will reach a $10 trillion market cap by 2030 is daunting. However, I think that Nvidia is up to the task, as it's slated to capitalize on massive and growing AI computing capacity.
As AI spending rises, so will Nvidia's stock. Companies are a long way from completing the buildout of necessary AI computing power, and this demand is what will drive Nvidia to become a $10 trillion company by 2030.
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The AI hyperscalers are still ramping up their data center spending
Nvidia makes graphics processing units (GPUs), which are the computing muscle behind nearly every AI model you can use today. They possess a unique attribute that enables them to process multiple calculations in parallel, providing superior computing power compared to traditional computing devices. They can also be connected in clusters to amplify this effect, which is why you hear about data centers with hundreds of thousands of GPUs.
2025 was a record-setting year for data center capital expenditures, and that trend appears to be continuing. Many AI hyperscalers have already warned investors that spending in 2026 will be even greater than in 2025, which also indicates further growth beyond 2026.
Most data centers take several years to complete construction, so the money spent in 2025 to purchase land, design the facility, and initiate construction will translate into these clients purchasing Nvidia GPUs in 2026 or 2027. So, whenever you hear an AI hyperscaler announce that they're building a facility in a location, it's safe to assume that Nvidia's growth horizon was extended at least another two or three years.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
This jives with what Nvidia's management has told investors during various conference calls. In the second quarter, they estimated that the big four AI hyperscalers will spend around $600 billion on data center capital expenditures. However, they expect that figure to rise to $3 trillion to $4 trillion when all customers worldwide are included. With Nvidia retaining an estimated 35% of this data center spend, it's slated to capitalize on massive growth during the next few years.
This is the fuel that Nvidia needs to reach a $10 trillion market cap, and I won't be surprised if Nvidia eclipses this monumental threshold by 2030.
Nvidia could be a much larger company than just $10 trillion
Using the bottom end of the estimated range, $3 trillion, and dropping Nvidia's take to 30% to bake in a bit of conservatism, indicates Nvidia would generate $900 billion in revenue by 2030. If Nvidia maintains its 50% profit margin, that would translate into net income of $450 billion by 2030. Over the past 12 months, Nvidia has generated $165 billion in revenue and $87 billion in profits, indicating a substantial increase.
NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts
But are those figures enough to make Nvidia a $10 trillion company? Remember, this is only data center revenue, not any revenue the company generates from other business pursuits. Therefore, the actual revenue and profit totals are likely to be significantly higher.
Even only considering projected data center growth, it's still sufficient to reach $10 trillion for Nvidia.
If we assign Nvidia a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30 times earnings, a reasonable price tag considering Nvidia's growth and importance, that would indicate that Nvidia's stock could be worth $13.5 trillion by 2030. That's far above the $10 trillion threshold, and that only includes the data center business. Additionally, this was due to Nvidia losing some of its share in the spending pie and the lower end of Nvidia's projection.
As a result, I'm confident that Nvidia can easily pass the $10 trillion threshold by 2030, making it a no-brainer buy today.
