Ford (F +12.16%) has been a surprise winner in 2025. As of Sept. 12, the Detroit carmaker's shares have generated a total return of 26% this year. This doubles the performance of the widely followed S&P 500 index.
The market is clearly viewing the business in a favorable light. But can this automotive stock make you rich? Let's see if Ford could be a millionaire maker.
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Low growth and profits
Investors can generate huge returns by buying and holding companies that exhibit strong growth over long periods of time. Ford has been around for over 120 years, so in the early days, it might have expanded rapidly. These days, however, this is a very mature business with an established market position.
It doesn't help that the overall auto industry lacks much growth potential. According to the International Energy Agency, there were 79.6 million passenger vehicles sold worldwide in 2024. That figure was only 5 million units higher than in 2014. This backdrop isn't favorable. And it explains why Wall Street analysts expect Ford's revenue to increase at a compound annual pace of only 1.7% between 2024 and 2027.
The main opportunity ahead is the subset of the bigger market formed by electric vehicles (EVs), which the industry was forced to start developing in response to Tesla's ascent. Ford is certainly focused on this area, with recently announced plans to spend $5 billion on two new plants in the U.S.
However, to capture any growth opportunities, the business must spend ridiculous amounts of money on research and development, and on building its manufacturing capabilities and reaching scale. That's why there was a huge operating loss in the Model e EV segment of $2.2 billion in the second quarter. The intense level of competition doesn't make things any easier.
Consequently, Ford probably won't be able to expand its margins. Great companies benefit from cost advantages, as they're able to leverage their operating expenses as revenue increases; earnings then rise at a faster rate than sales. This is not the case here. Ford's operating margin in 2024 (before tariffs were implemented) was 2.8%. This has barely improved, as the margin was 2.4% 10 years ago in 2014.
NYSE: F
Key Data Points
Look in the rearview mirror
Ford might have been an early pioneer in the auto industry. However, it has not been a smart investment. In the past decade, shares have generated a disappointing total return of 48%. Given that the business model isn't changing from a fundamental perspective, and the economics will stay the same, there's no reason to believe that the stock is suddenly going to produce monster returns in the decades ahead.
To be clear, Ford is not a millionaire maker. In fact, its shares will probably continue to lag the overall market over the long term.
Yet just because a stock won't help you much in becoming a millionaire one day, that doesn't mean that you won't find it a compelling opportunity. Ford has, for the most part, been profitable historically; as a result, management is able to pay a dividend that totals $0.60 per year. Because the stock is so cheap, the dividend yield sits at around 5.1% right now. This might make Ford a good choice for income-seeking investors.
But it's best to be cautious. The auto industry is extremely cyclical, as consumer demand changes with the fluctuations of the broader economy. If a recession happens in the near term, there's an extremely high likelihood that Ford's sales will be under immense pressure. And because the profit margins are already so low, it shouldn't be a surprise if the company starts posting net losses. That would certainly put the dividend at risk.
