You may notice a few common denominators with most of the 10 companies with market caps of at least $1 trillion. All but one of them focus on technology. Their dividends (if any) are also puny, again with one exception.
The kinds of stocks favored by income investors might seem unlikely candidates to join the group anytime soon. However, that isn't necessarily the case. Can these three Dividend Kings (an elite group of stocks with 50 or more years of consecutive dividend increases) be worth $1 trillion in 10 years?
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1. Walmart
I think Walmart (WMT 0.06%) is a shoo-in to be a member of the trillion-dollar club by 2035. Actually, I'd be shocked if it doesn't happen sooner than that.
Walmart's market cap already hovers around $830 billion. The giant retailer would need to grow only by 2% annually over the next 10 years to break the $1 trillion mark. Walmart has delivered much greater gains in recent years.
Granted, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Walmart's lofty valuation (its forward price-to-earnings multiple is 40, higher than Nvidia's) could also get in the way. However, the company's adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and other technologies should enable it to continue boosting profitability. I think Walmart has a clear path to $1 trillion.
I also think the company has a clear path to growing its dividend. Walmart has increased its dividend for 52 consecutive years. It should have no problems keeping that streak going through 2035 and beyond.
2. Johnson & Johnson
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 1.12%), ranked as the largest healthcare company by market cap for years, now holds the No. 2 spot, behind Eli Lilly. Can J&J reach $1 trillion over the next 10 years? It's possible.
To make it happen, Johnson & Johnson will need to more than double its current market cap of around $425 billion. That will take a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 9% over the next 10 years. J&J hasn't come anywhere close to delivering that level of growth in recent years.
The main challenge for Johnson & Johnson to grow as much as needed by 2035 is its patent cliff. Stelara, the company's second-biggest moneymaker, already faces biosimilar competition. Top-selling Darzalex loses U.S. patent exclusivity in 2029.
However, Johnson & Johnson does have several growth drivers in its current product lineup, including drugs and medical devices. It could also accelerate growth through smart acquisitions. The company has a much tougher hill to climb to $1 trillion than Walmart does, but I wouldn't count J&J out. Even if the healthcare giant doesn't achieve the goal, it should be a solid pick for income investors, with its dividend yield of nearly 3% and a track record of 63 consecutive dividend increases.
3. Procter & Gamble
Could Procter & Gamble (PG 0.21%) be worth $1 trillion by 2035? The consumer products giant's market cap stands at roughly $370 billion today. P&G's valuation would have to expand by a CAGR of around 10.5% to become a member of the trillion-dollar club. I don't have high hopes that it will happen.
P&G's stock performance has been downright dismal over the last five years. Its dividend program has been one of the brightest spots, with the company announcing its 69th consecutive annual dividend increase earlier this year.
To be sure, P&G claims a strong product lineup, including Bounty paper towels, Crest toothpaste, Pampers diapers, and Tide detergent. The problem, though, is that sales for the company's products aren't growing enough. Probably the best shot P&G has at reaching a $1 trillion market cap over the next 10 years is through a big merger or acquisition.
My take on P&G is similar to my thoughts on Johnson & Johnson. This stock doesn't need a 12-digit valuation to be a good pick for long-term investors seeking reliable income.
