ExxonMobil (XOM -0.63%) and its partners, which now include Chevron (CVX -0.46%), have approved the Hammerhead project offshore Guyana. The companies expect to invest $6.8 billion in developing the offshore oil project, which should start producing in 2029.
Here's a closer look at how the Hammerhead project will strengthen ExxonMobil's and Chevron's ability to grow their production, free cash flow, and shareholder returns in the coming years.
Image source: Getty Images.
Drilling down into Hammerhead
Exxon, the project operator with a leading 45% interest, has made a final investment decision to move forward with the Hammerhead project offshore Guyana. It's the seventh project the company and its partners have approved in the Stabroek Block, which is a world-class oil resource. It's the largest oil discovery in the past decade, with more than 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) of discovered recoverable resource to date.
The oil giant and its partners, which also include Chinese oil company CNOOC with a 25% stake, will invest $6.8 billion to build a floating production, storage, and offloading vessel with the capacity to produce roughly 150,000 barrels per day. The project will also include drilling 18 production and injection wells. Exxon expects Hammerhead to start producing in 2029.
Exxon recently completed the fourth oil development in the region. The Yellowtail project is the largest to date, with an average production rate of 250,000 barrels per day. That brought the total installed capacity to 900,000 barrels per day. It's also working on Uaru (planned completion in 2026) and Whiptail (planned completion in 2027). The company also has an eighth project in development, which it anticipates will come online in 2030, boosting the total regional output to 1.7 million BOE per day.
Exxon's 2030 growth plan
Guyana is a key catalyst fueling Exxon's long-term growth outlook. The oil company plans to invest around $140 billion into major growth capital projects (including Guyana) and its Permian Basin development program by 2030. It expects this capital to generate strong returns of more than 30% over the life of the investment.
These high-return investments support Exxon's ambitious earnings growth outlook. By 2030, the oil giant expects to grow its earnings capacity by $20 billion and its cash flow by $30 billion. That implies compound annual growth rates of 10% for earnings and 8% for cash flow over that period. This growth positions Exxon to produce a cumulative $165 billion in surplus cash over the period, which it can use to increase shareholder returns. Exxon plans to continue growing its dividend, which it has done for a sector-leading 42 consecutive years. It also plans to buy back a meaningful amount of stock each year, with a target of repurchasing $20 billion in both 2025 and 2026.
Enhancing and extending its growth outlook
Chevron is a new partner for Exxon in Guyana. The oil giant recently closed its acquisition of Hess. In doing so, it assumed Hess' 30% interest in the Stabroek Block. As a result, the oil giant will participate in the growth ahead in the region as Exxon brings Uaru, Whiptail, Hammerhead, and other projects online. The visible growth from these developments drives Chevron's view that the Hess acquisition will enhance and extend its production and free-cash-flow growth outlook into the 2030s.
Chevron also expects to receive a significant boost from its legacy portfolio next year, thanks to recently completed large-scale capital projects in Kazakhstan and the Gulf of Mexico (also known as the Gulf of America in the U.S.). Those projects, along with other growth catalysts like its Hess deal, could add as much as $12.5 billion to its annual free cash flow next year.
This free-cash-flow growth should support higher cash returns for Chevron's investors. The oil giant has raised its dividend for 38 straight years -- including delivering peer-leading growth over the past decade -- a streak that seems likely to continue. It also plans to repurchase between $10 billion and $20 billion of its shares each year, assuming reasonable market conditions.
Top-tier oil stocks
ExxonMobil and Chevron are two of the top stocks in the oil patch. They expect to grow their production and cash flows into the 2030s, fueled by projects such as Hammerhead in Guyana. That will provide these oil giants with more cash to return to shareholders. The combination of growing cash flows and increasing cash returns could provide these oil stocks with the fuel to produce robust total returns over the next five years, making them look like compelling long-term investments.
