Novo Nordisk (NVO -1.04%) has come under pressure over the past year (down almost 52%) as profit assumptions for its weight loss drug Wegovy have been pared back. A combination of high-profile quality control issues, supply chain bottlenecks , and increasing competition from Eli Lilly's (LLY 2.56%) Zepbound have dramatically reset investor expectations.
Still, the company looks set to turn the tide in the battle over weight loss drugs. Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images.
Novo Nordisk and the oral GLP-1 weight loss market
There are two key reasons why Novo Nordisk can emerge victorious in the race to commercialize an oral version of a GLP-1 weight loss drug -- the currently approved drugs are injectables.
First, it's the first in line to be approved, with a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decision due in the fourth quarter of this year. In contrast, Eli Lilly plans to submit oral weight loss drug orforglipron for regulatory review in obesity in late 2025, and for type 2 diabetes in late 2026.
Second, based on the current data, Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy appears to have the edge over orforglipron in obesity. The company recently published results for the phase 3 (OASIS-4) trial, which demonstrated an efficacy and safety advantage over Eli Lilly's orforglipron.
|
Company |
Drug (oral for weight loss) |
Trial |
Discontinuation rate due to adverse effects (treated) |
Discontinuation rate due to adverse effects (placebo) |
Body weight change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Novo Nordisk |
semaglutide (oral Wegovy) |
OASIS-4 |
6.9% |
5.9% |
16.6% |
|
Eli Lilly |
orforglipron |
ATTAIN-1 |
10.3%* |
2.6% |
12.4%* |
Data source: Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk presentations. *At the highest dosage.
Where next for Novo Nordisk?
All told, if Novo Nordisk can secure oral Wegovy approval first and continue to demonstrate superiority in the lab, while avoiding any operational mishaps, the company looks well-positioned to prosper in 2026.
