Shares of Rigetti Computing (RGTI 18.29%) skyrocketed 83.6% in September, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Quantum computing stocks generally surged last month, with gains ranging from Quantum Computing's 17% jump to D-Wave Quantum's 58% spurt, but they couldn't keep up with Rigetti.
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Government contracts and quantum orders fueled Rigetti's recent rise
The stocks mentioned above often move as a group. When one quantum computing expert announces a technology breakthrough, all of them bask in that glory for a while.
September saw some of that effect play out. For example, Rigetti's stock jumped 14% on Sept. 11, driven by IonQ restructuring its business to meet higher demand from the federal sector.
But Rigetti cooked up most of its own market-moving fuel last month. The flashpoint for a 48% price surge in the third week of September was a three-year contract from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory.
Rigetti and Air Force researchers will explore superconducting quantum networking together. This technology seeks to transfer the quantum state of qubit computing units over long distances, resulting in faster and more accurate data transfer.
At the very end of September, Rigetti also posted two purchase orders for its top-of-the-line Novera systems, sparking a single-day stock jump of 16.5%. The upgradable systems should be delivered in the first half of 2026.
The customers in this two-part deal are not arms of the American government. One is an as-yet-unidentified technology manufacturer headquartered in Asia. The other is a California-based start-up in the field of artificial intelligence and applied physics. Both will focus their Rigetti systems on noncommercial tasks such as internal training and hands-on error correction research.
Is Rigetti's quantum leap worth the risk?
Rigetti's blossoming sales and contracts are exciting, and the quantum computing industry as a whole is making big strides toward long-term commercial success at the moment. However, the financially sustainable future of the technology is still many years away. And it's a risky ride.
The two Novera orders boosted Rigetti's market cap from $9.66 billion to $11.22 billion. That's a $1.56 billion boost from two sales worth (checks notes) a total of $5.7 million. That's a lot of investor optimism based on a pair of fairly small contracts.
And that's not a rare example. Stocks like Rigetti (and IonQ, and D-Wave, and...) often make big moves on tiny bits of news. Investors are looking for the next big thing, hoping to capture huge long-term returns before everyone else gets in on the same secret.
But Rigetti isn't a secret anymore, and the company still faces huge risks on the road to profitable quantum computing operations. I'm watching this space with trillion-dollar tech titans in my quantum portfolio -- not risky early-stage challengers with small revenue streams and huge bottom-line losses.
