Bitcoin (BTC -0.69%) started trading at just $0.003 when the first Bitcoin exchange, BitcoinMarket.com, opened in March 2010. Today, Bitcoin trades at about $125,000 -- so a $10,000 investment in its earliest trade would be worth a whopping $416.7 billion today.
Even if you missed that billionaire-making gain, there were still plenty of opportunities to hop aboard the bandwagon and reap some millionaire-making gains. If you had invested $10,000 in Bitcoin a decade ago, your investment would be worth $5.08 million today.
But can Bitcoin churn more millionaire-making gains from a fresh $10,000 investment today? Let's review its upcoming catalysts and challenges to find out.
Image source: Getty Images.
What catalysts could drive Bitcoin's price higher?
Bitcoin is still mined with the energy-intensive proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism. In this process, miners earn Bitcoin rewards by validating other Bitcoin transactions across its blockchain. They accomplish that by solving cryptographic puzzles with powerful chips. In the past, Bitcoin could be mined with simple CPUs and GPUs.
But every four years, a "halving" cuts its rewards in half and makes it more expensive to mine Bitcoin. The most recent halving occurred in 2024, and the next halving is scheduled to occur in 2028. Today, Bitcoins can only be mined for a profit with custom application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) chips. Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million tokens.
Some 19.9 million of those tokens have already been mined, but the increasing difficulty of mining more Bitcoins will prevent its final token from being mined until 2140. That scarcity makes Bitcoin more comparable to gold, silver, and other hard commodities than many other cryptocurrencies.
That's why Bitcoin is often touted as "digital gold" and a hedge against inflation. Its similarities to gold also supported the Security and Exchange Commission's approvals of its first spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last January. Those approvals made it easier for retail and institutional investors to boost their exposure to Bitcoin without a dedicated crypto wallet.
Big tech companies like Strategy are accumulating more Bitcoin as an alternative to cash, while countries like El Salvador have started accepting it as legal tender. Under the Trump administration, the U.S. launched its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to hold its confiscated tokens and explore tax-free ways to accumulate even more Bitcoins. All of those catalysts, along with lower interest rates, could drive Bitcoin's price higher over the next few years.
What challenges could end Bitcoin's rally?
Bitcoin's future still looks bright, but more governments could tighten their regulations for Bitcoin trades. That's because it's emerging as a long-term threat to fiat currencies and traditional banking systems, and it's often criticized as a way to launder money or dodge taxes. A widespread crackdown on Bitcoin could drive away its big institutional investors.
Another emerging threat is the rise of quantum computing, which has the potential to crack the cryptographic puzzles used in Bitcoin mining at a much faster rate than classical computers. It could also be used to forge transactions across its blockchain. Most experts don't expect quantum computers to become powerful enough to shake up the Bitcoin market for another 15 to 20 years. But the looming threat of that potential disruption -- which challenges the notion that Bitcoin is "digital gold" -- may cap its long-term gains.
Lastly, a broader market crash could also drag Bitcoin lower. Even though the bulls might consider it a safe haven asset, it's stumbled in previous market downturns. With the S&P 500 hovering near its all-time highs and trading at a historically high 31 times earnings, the market might be ripe for a pullback -- and it could herald another crypto winter.
Will Bitcoin generate more millionaire-making gains?
Bitcoin's bulls expect its price to surge higher as more fiat currencies fizzle out and more institutional investors ramp up their purchases. Ark Invest's Cathie Wood claims Bitcoin's price could reach $2.4 million by 2030, while Strategy's Michael Saylor believes it could hit $21 million by 2046. If Bitcoin rises from its current price of $125,000 to those two targets, it would turn a $10,000 investment (0.08 BTC) into 192,000 by 2030 and $1.68 million by 2046.
Therefore, a fresh $10,000 investment in Bitcoin could potentially churn out more millionaire-making gains over the next two decades if everything goes right. But that growth trajectory will be incredibly volatile, and it won't come anywhere close to replicating its massive gains from the past 15 years.
