The Oct. 10 flash crash in the crypto sector was a shock, but the spark for the sell-off was not a crypto problem at all. That day, the White House floated tariff hikes on Chinese imports, escalating an already tense market backdrop and sending risk assets lower in minutes.
Bitcoin (BTC 1.66%) fell hard intraday before stabilizing, while many altcoins dropped much further, with a few on the all-important Binance exchange even falling near $0 during the mayhem.
So what happens next, and how should investors approach the next few weeks?
What the market is signaling now
From here, there are four plausible paths.
The first scenario is that a grinding bear market will set in for the weakest of altcoins and perhaps even the weaker main cryptos, where projects with thin adoption and murky functions slowly fade out and new ones stop being launched as intensely as they were before. Losses among the major cryptos might ultimately exceed 30% of their value today.
The slowdown in ecosystem growth among the less popular blockchains may have been already happening before the crash, and it could persist as capital prefers higher-quality projects. Plus, during the crash, it was evident that many altcoins simply don't have a consistent demand from investors, only from market makers intent on capturing value by handling high trading volume.
Prospective buyers of those coins today are thus faced with the reality that they might not be able to off-load any recent investments at higher prices anytime soon, which also serves to depress enthusiasm and prices simultaneously. One significant risk with this scenario is that falling prices will tempt investors and cause them to double down.
The second scenario is that a sector-wide crypto winter occurs after confidence truly breaks. Such winters have historically lasted a couple of years. That risk rises if tariffs dent global growth and depress risk appetite for months rather than weeks. And the danger rises even further if there's no additional interest rate cuts that would increase the liquidity available to the crypto market.
In this scenario, Bitcoin would take a significant drubbing, and crypto majors like Solana (SOL 0.65%) and Ethereum (ETH 0.17%) might even lose 60% of their value or more, though their survival probably wouldn't be threatened. Most altcoins, however, would collapse; only a small handful of survivors would remain active until the next market cycle.
But, given the steady institutional adoption of Bitcoin, Solana, Ethereum, and other major cryptos, it's important to note that there are powerful countervailing forces that make this outcome unlikely.
The third scenario -- the base case -- is a messy but perhaps prolonged season of repair in which large cryptos recoup their losses. Early readouts from the market fit that template.
The main point is that in this base case, the long-term outlook for the crypto market remains intact, which is to say bullish for a variety of reasons. Those reasons include financial institutions adopting crypto for real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and other purposes, and investors getting easier exposure to the largest assets as a result of newly approved exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Lastly, there's the pipe-dream scenario, which crypto investors call the V-reversal. It's a fantasy in which prices simply bounce back ferociously, and then continue in a straight line up after surpassing their prior levels. Could it happen? Yes, but don't hold your breath.
How to position for the long term
As I see it, nothing in last week's headlines directly altered the core investment cases for the sector's biggest networks. As Bitwise Asset Management's chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, put it, the plunge looked like a stress test, with the longer-term thesis for major assets intact.
The wild card is Washington. If tariff plans become clearer or less restrictive, risk appetite can rebound; if tariff tensions escalate, expect more volatility, and more long-term damage to the sector.
For investors, the right move after a shock like the flash crash is to focus on the investing thesis, focus on the long term, and avoid chasing every bounce. In other words, the shock was real, but the underlying value of quality crypto assets is still in place. Don't get shaken out; consider buying the dip of the largest cryptos with a conservative amount of capital, and with plenty of patience.
It is likely that a few weeks from now, much of the damage in the leaders will be repaired, while many dubious projects remain in tatters. Position accordingly, and let time in the market do the work of increasing your portfolio's value.
