There are a lot of ways for investors to play the artificial intelligence (AI) trend: semiconductor chipmakers, foundry operators, hardware manufacturers, hyperscalers, and the list goes on. Overall, it's a lucrative market that Grand View Research predicts will grow from an estimated $279 billion value in 2024 to $3.5 trillion in 2033.
While much of that growth will be driven by U.S.-based companies, there are some intriguing international opportunities as well. Two in particular that look like smart buys today are based in the Netherlands, a European country with a population a bit smaller than the state of New York. Both Nebius Group (NBIS +10.46%) and ASML (ASML 0.28%) have the potential to be massively successful for their shareholders in the coming years.
But which of these Dutch companies looks like the better investment now?
Image source: Getty Images.
About Nebius Group
Nebius Group has an interesting history. The company used to be known as Yandex N.V. and traded on the Nasdaq index. Notably, it also owned a Russian internet company that was also called Yandex.
But after Russia invaded Ukraine, Nasdaq suspended trading of Yandex shares and then delisted the company. Yandex N.V. spun off its Russian assets and rebranded itself as Nebius, returning to the Nasdaq in 2024.
NASDAQ: NBIS
Key Data Points
Now, Nebius functions largely as an AI infrastructure company. It has purchased thousands of Nvidia's high-end graphics processing units (GPUs) and installed them in data centers that are designed specifically for AI technology. It offers a full-stack AI cloud platform from which its customers can develop and run their software.
The company operates hubs in North America, Europe, and now in the Middle East, having just opened one of the first publicly accessible full-stack data centers in Israel to be powered by Nvidia's Blackwell chips.
In addition to its relationship with Nvidia, Nebius Group has a $19.4 billion contract to provide Microsoft with cloud capacity for its Azure platform through its data center in New Jersey.
Nebius isn't profitable yet, but that's understandable because building data centers is a capital-intensive undertaking. However, it's guiding for an annualized revenue run rate in a range of $900 million to $1.1 billion by the end of the year, and management believes it will have more than 1 gigawatt of computing power online by the end of 2026. That kind of momentum, combined with its relationships with megacap players in AI, has helped push Nebius Group stock more than 257% higher so far in 2025.
About ASML
ASML operates behind the scenes in the semiconductor and AI spaces, but it plays an indispensable role. It manufactures lithography machines that are used in the fabrication of chips -- and in fact, it's the only company in the world that has mastered extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology.
Why is that important? Because EUV technology allows the creation of smaller components and circuits than could be made using the previous best technology -- deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography. And the smaller the circuits, the more of them that fabricators can squeeze into each chip. At this point, to actually produce today's most powerful chip designs requires the use of EUV technology, and power is the name of the game with the chips that are training and powering AI programs, large language models, and other computationally demanding applications.
NASDAQ: ASML
Key Data Points
Foundries operated by Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung, and Intel all use ASML's EUV lithography machines to make their customers' most advanced chips, so ASML can virtually lock in profits knowing that its machines will be in demand as fabricators boost their production capacity in an effort to catch up to chip demand.
The biggest challenge for ASML right now, however, is that it's losing sales in China. Restrictions imposed by the Dutch government on the export of cutting-edge technology mean that ASML won't regain full access to that market in the near future.
"We expect to see China customer demand and therefore our China total net sales in 2026 to decline significantly compared to our very strong business there in 2024 and 2025," CEO Christophe Fouquet said. "We believe that the impact of these dynamics will only partially affect 2026. However, overall, we do not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025."
Which stock is better?
If I'm looking for the investment that I expect to be the bigger winner five years down the road, I'm picking ASML. The stock is up 45% this year, which isn't nearly as much as Nebius Group. But I think it also has a longer runway for growth over the long term.
If you're looking for a shorter-term trade, one that you intend to hold for just one or two years, then Nebius Group has a better outlook. I think the company will start turning a profit in 2026, although its bottom line will remain pressured by its ongoing capital expenditures as it builds up its data center capacity.
Both stocks are strong plays. Which is the better choice for you is contingent on whether you have a short-term or long-term investment horizon.
