Nvidia (NVDA +1.06%) has been one of the top growth stocks to own over the past three years. In 2023, the stock rose 239%. In 2024, it was up 171%. So far in 2025, it hasn't had nearly that much success, rising 34% year to date. Still, a 34% rise in one year is nothing to be disappointed in, as it smashes typical market growth rates.
With Nvidia having a comparatively lackluster year so far, is this trend set to continue in 2026? Or is there a catalyst that could cause the stock to boom over the next year? Let's take a look and see what Nvidia's stock price could be by the end of 2026 if the AI race continues at its current pace.
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Nvidia has benefited from massive AI spending
No company has benefited more from the artificial intelligence race than Nvidia. Nvidia sells graphics processing units (GPUs), which are computing units that have historically been used to tackle any workload that requires extreme computing power. Although these devices were created to process gaming graphics (thus the name) prior to AI workflows, they are also used in engineering simulations, drug discovery, and mining cryptocurrency.
However, AI created the biggest demand for these devices to date, and it only looks to continue rising. Nvidia raised eyebrows when it commented that it expects AI data center capital expenditures to reach $600 billion in 2025, then rise to $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030. However, that call was then followed up by several other companies confirming that demand, making Nvidia a smart company to invest in if it comes true.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Nvidia commented that if a data center costs $50 billion to construct, the company receives about $35 billion of it. That's a huge chunk of the pie, and although there are other computing options available, Nvidia still has a dominant market share. Furthermore, data centers don't go up overnight. So, when you hear about various AI hyperscalers announcing a new data center project, Nvidia won't recognize the revenue for chip sales for a few years. These customers also want to make sure their chips are secured when the data center is operational, so they're likely in contact with Nvidia years in advance of when they actually need them.
This gives Nvidia an unmatched view into the future of chip demand. So when Nvidia speaks about where the market could go, investors should listen up.
With this in mind, what could Nvidia's stock price be in 2026?
Nvidia's stock is a must-buy if these projections pan out
If data center capital expenditure rises from $600 billion in 2025 to $3.5 trillion by 2030 (the midpoint of Nvidia's projection), that indicates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42%. For fiscal year 2026 (ending January 2026), Wall Street analysts expect Nvidia to generate about $207 billion in revenue. Assuming that Nvidia can continue growing at the rate of data center capital expenditure expansion, that would give Nvidia FY 2027 revenue of $294 billion.
If Nvidia can maintain its 50% profit margin and its price-to-earnings (P/E) declines to a more reasonable 40 times earnings, that would give Nvidia a market cap of $5.9 trillion. Currently, Nvidia has a $4.38 trillion market cap with a $180 stock price, so that would indicate Nvidia's stock price at the end of 2026 would be $241.
That's a strong gain from today's levels, and if Nvidia can accomplish that, it will be a widely successful stock pick for the fourth year in a row. As long as AI data center buildouts continue their momentum through the end of 2025 and 2026, Nvidia's stock has plenty of room to run, making it a great buy now.
