Even though Bitcoin's (BTC 3.01%) price has stalled in recent weeks, the coin is still up in 2025. The world's largest cryptocurrency has gained about 15% year to date, keeping pace with the broader market (as of Oct. 31), and up a hefty 55% during the past year. More investors have been treating Bitcoin like a form of digital gold, which is on a stellar run of its own, due to geopolitical issues and concerns over inflation and mounting U.S. government debt.
Despite Bitcoin's strong performance, many analysts think there is more room to run. Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at the global investment management firm VanEck, thinks Bitcoin could surge as much as 45,279% by 2050.
A big call from a legit Wall Street firm
Although acceptance of Bitcoin is gaining in the mainstream financial world, there still aren't very many Wall Street firms doing traditional research on digital assets and issuing price targets. Part of that has to do with the fact that the sector is only about 16 years old. It's also very difficult to value digital assets because they don't generate free cash flow and earnings like a traditional publicly traded company would. So seeing a longtime Wall Street fund make such a big call is certainly a big deal.
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In late July, Sigel and his team put out a big update, suggesting that Bitcoin, in the firm's bull case scenario, could rise to as much as $52.3 million per coin by the year 2050. The findings were calculated by looking at Bitcoin's potential circulating supply, how much of the crypto is used as a currency in international and domestic trade, and whether central banks purchase it, similar to the way they've purchased gold. The analysis also looked at many other factors such as investor demand and global growth to make its long-term calculations.
One of Sigel's main arguments regarding Bitcoin has to do with the deteriorating financial situations of several current world economic leaders like the U.S., U.K., the European Union, and Japan. These countries have racked up huge debts, which force their governments to allocate significant costs to paying annual interest expense.
Sigel thinks this will hurt the preeminent world reserve currencies, leading many consumers and businesses to eventually choose Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies, creating demand for "a neutral medium of exchange with immutable property rights and predictable monetary policy" like Bitcoin. According to Sigel, Bitcoin provides important attributes that will be valued from a currency such as trustlessness, neutrality, immutable monetary policy, and perfect property rights.
While Bitcoin's network is not viewed as very efficient from a technical perspective, Sigel and his team believe Bitcoin can be scaled through a growing network of Layer-2 solutions that make it easier to transact in Bitcoin, but off of the main network and less tied to the network than traditional Layer-2 solutions on other blockchain networks.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
In Sigel's bull case scenario, Bitcoin will capture 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic trade by 2050, and 99% of Bitcoin coins will be removed from circulation. Bitcoin's price will also generate a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50%, and Bitcoin will make up just shy of 30% of the world's financial assets. In this scenario, the price of Bitcoin will surge to $52.4 million, implying 45,279% upside from current levels.
In VanEck's base case, Bitcoin captures 10% and 5% of international and domestic trade, respectively. Eighty-five percent of coins are removed from circulation and Bitcoin grows at a CAGR of 16%, while making up just under 1.7% of the world's assets. In this scenario, the crypto would trade at about $2.9 million by 2050.
Is a $52 million Bitcoin token actually possible?
The short answer is I have no idea. I've learned to never say never in the world of crypto, but I also am also skeptical when it comes to price predictions on cryptocurrencies because, as I mentioned above, they are quite different from traditional stocks.
Sigel and VanEck are definitely legit sources and did some very interesting work in their research that is worth reading. It's really tough to know whether Sigel's prediction can come true and whether consumers and businesses will view Bitcoin as a better form of currency than fiat currencies. For what it's worth, I find Sigel's base case assumptions much more realistic, like a 16% CAGR and Bitcoin eventually capturing 1.7% of the world's financial assets.
Right now, I still view Bitcoin as a good long-term asset for investors to allocate at least some capital to. The token is increasingly being viewed by many investors as a good store of value, which offers a unique form of diversification that many assets cannot offer.
