In consumer products, the most recognizable brand often beats a feature-rich upstart that never quite crosses the chasm. Given their heavy reliance on marketing and investor enthusiasm, meme coins are no different. Having the best-known mascot and the widest distribution avenues usually wins in the long run.
And that's why I expect Dogecoin (DOGE 7.98%) to continue to be worth more than Shiba Inu (SHIB 6.55%) in 2030, even if the latter manages to grow dramatically. Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why Dogecoin probably stays on top
It's true that both memes rely on a cute shiba inu dog, but Dogecoin's brand recognition dwarfs its rivals in the meme coin space. With a market cap of $30.6 billion, it remains a top 10 cryptoasset by market value, far ahead of Shiba Inu's market cap of $6.1 billion. Shiba Inu would thus need to multiply in value by several times without Dogecoin gaining any ground whatsoever -- a very improbable setup, given the cross-coin price contagion that meme coins tend to exhibit -- to match its size.
Access is another big part of the story here, because it's improving rapidly for Dogecoin, and not for Shiba Inu. Investors who want to buy Dogecoin in their retirement or brokerage accounts can now do that via a Dogecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), widening the funnel for capital that otherwise would not be invested. Shiba Inu doesn't currently have any ETF access, and it might not ever.
CRYPTO: DOGE
Key Data Points
Furthermore, utility is a potential wild card.
Dogecoin still lacks native smart contract support, but there is active discussion in its developer community about enabling technical changes that would open the door to launching a Layer-2 (L2) chain that would support them. It might not arrive soon, but if it does, Dogecoin would gain a new narrative about its value, which could encourage some people to buy it.
The Shiba Inu headwinds aren't a joke
Shiba Inu is not well positioned to grow by any avenue at present.
Years ago, Shiba Inu tried to escape its meme coin roots by launching the Shibarium, its Layer-2 chain. However, Shibarium's throughput is minimal, with daily fees and transaction volumes that are tiny relative to major L2s, signaling thin on-chain economic activity, and ultimately, a largely vestigial piece of technology.
CRYPTO: SHIB
Key Data Points
Could Shiba Inu narrow the distance? It's faintly possible.
Assuming new ETFs for SHIB get listed eventually, it might get a short-term boost. But without durable on-chain activity, those inflows are likely to be fickle. It'd take a major new piece of useful technology added to the Shibarium to get users to come back and drive up the coin's value.
In practice, Dogecoin's combination of brand inertia, expanding ETF and trust access, and the chance of a future L2 keeps it in the pole position for 2030. Of course, that doesn't mean you should buy it -- just understand the factors that drive its success, and apply the same analytical principles elsewhere.
