Fresh on the heels of International Business Machines (IBM +1.25%) advancing to the second stage of the Quantum Computing Benchmarking Initiative led by DARPA, the tech giant made multiple announcements related to its quantum computing efforts on Wednesday. IBM continues to expect quantum advantage, or when a quantum computer can outperform a classical computer in a specific computation, by the end of 2026, and fault-tolerant quantum computing by 2029. The company also detailed multiple quantum hardware innovations.
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IBM Quantum Nighthawk and IBM Quantum Loon
IBM Quantum Nighthawk is the company's latest quantum processor, and IBM expects its architecture to enable delivering quantum advantage sometime next year. The current version of Nighthawk features 120 qubits linked together with 218 tunable couplers. A 20% increase in the number of couplers compared to IBM's last-generation quantum processor enables Nighthawk to execute circuits that are 30% more complex.
Over the next few years, IBM will iterate Nighthawk and expand its capabilities. By 2028, Nighthawk-based systems are expected to have 1,000 qubits and long-range couplers. Along the way, IBM expects Nighthawk-based systems to be used to demonstrate quantum advantage. The company is working with researchers from other companies and institutions on an open quantum advantage tracker to verify any demonstrations of quantum advantage.
Separate from Nighthawk, IBM is pushing forward with IBM Quantum Loon, an experimental quantum processor that aims to deliver fault-tolerant quantum computing by 2029. Loon uses a different architecture, and IBM claims to have "demonstrated all the key processor components needed for fault-tolerant quantum computing."
Error correction and fabrication
One hurdle to reaching fault-tolerant quantum computing is error mitigation and correction. Qubits are fragile, and that fragility can derail quantum computations. IBM has demonstrated that it can use classical computing hardware to accurately decode errors in real time, an achievement that the company hit one year ahead of schedule. In October, the company first disclosed this fact by saying that it could run its error correction algorithm on standard AMD chips. In combination with Loon, this progress in error correction brings IBM closer to useful quantum computing.
As IBM pushes ahead with more advanced quantum processors, the company has moved production to the advanced 300mm wafer fabrication facility at the Albany NanoTech Complex in New York. This move has already paid off, with IBM claiming that the time needed to build each processor has been cut in half, and that the physical complexity of its quantum chips has increased by a factor of 10. IBM is also able to research multiple designs in parallel.
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Key Data Points
Is IBM a quantum computing stock to buy?
IBM is one of many companies racing to harness the potential power of quantum computing. What makes IBM stand out is its decades-long track record of researching the technology and its practical strategy of harnessing classical computing techniques in tandem with quantum computers as it drives toward commercialization.
If IBM hits its target, fault-tolerant quantum computing will arrive in 2029. At that point, IBM will need to scale its quantum systems up before they're truly useful for real-world problems. IBM's quantum roadmap puts that achievement in 2033 and beyond.
It may still be many years before useful quantum computing arrives, but IBM is well-positioned to lead the industry. Pure-play quantum computing companies that are burning cash and depend on constantly raising new capital will need to survive long enough for the technology to mature, which is no guarantee. IBM and other tech giants involved in quantum computing research don't have that problem.
With IBM making meaningful progress toward commercial quantum computing, investors looking for exposure to the emerging technology without excessive risk should seriously consider the century-old tech giant.
