If you look at 2025 as a whole, Rigetti Computing (RGTI 1.41%) investors have had a great year, as the stock has essentially doubled. However, after setting an all-time high in early October, the stock now sits about 50% off that level.
That's a huge crash in just a few weeks, but is this sell-off warranted, or is this a fantastic opportunity to buy a hot quantum computing stock on the dip? Let's take a look at Rigetti Computing's stock and see if there's a salvageable investment here.
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Rigetti Computing had a rocky Q3
Rigetti Computing is a pure-play competitor in the quantum computing arena. With its sole focus on quantum computing supremacy, there is hardly any room for error. If Rigetti cannot develop a viable quantum computing option, its stock will head to $0, making any losses investors have sustained recently look far worse. However, if Rigetti Computing can develop a viable computing option and capture a huge market share, the stock could generate incredible returns.
NASDAQ: RGTI
Key Data Points
This is the appeal of a high-risk, high-reward stock like Rigetti, but is it too risky?
Compared to other quantum computing competitors (namely, IonQ (IONQ +2.25%)), Rigetti hasn't posted the best results. Rigetti Computing only posted revenue of $1.9 million in Q3, down from last year's quarterly result of $2.4 million. While commercially viable quantum computing systems are still years away, Rigetti has offerings such as its Novera, a 9-qubit, 4-chiplet computer that early-stage adopters can use for research purposes. IonQ also has devices like this, and it's seeing far more success. IonQ's Q3 revenue was $39.9 million, up from $12.4 million last year. That's still not a massive amount of revenue, but it's far better than what Rigetti delivered in Q3.
Rigetti isn't excelling right now, and it's possibly because its technology just isn't as good as some of its peers.
Rigetti may be falling behind its peers
One of the most important contracts for any quantum computing company to win is from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). If Rigetti could win this business, it would be on the fast track to being implemented across U.S. defense systems and have the opportunity for billions of dollars in business. Although it was in the initial Stage A Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, it wasn't selected for Stage B. Fellow pure play IonQ was.
Time may be ticking for Rigetti, as its current technology isn't on par with what it needs to be to stay competitive.
One of the biggest issues with quantum computing right now is accuracy. This is obviously an important quality for a quantum computer, and if Rigetti can offer a highly accurate system, it can win a lot of business. The problem is, Rigetti is a ways behind the competition. It expects to deploy a system with more than 150 qubits by the end of 2026 that can prove 99.7% 2-qubit gate fidelity. The problem is that IonQ has already achieved 99.99% fidelity.
IonQ has a big advantage in this area due to the architecture of its quantum computing system, but Alphabet (GOOG +4.37%) (GOOGL +4.40%) is using the same technique as Rigetti. Alphabet's quantum division recently announced that its 105-qubit system achieved 99.5% fidelity. So, Rigetti is already behind one competitor and slightly behind another competitor that has nearly unlimited resources.
This is all shaping up to look like a disaster for Rigetti Computing, and if I were a shareholder, I'd consider moving on to a different quantum computing investment. I think investors need a lot more clarity behind Rigetti's strategy before investing any more in the stock, and with far better quantum computing alternatives available, I think investors are better off investing in those.
