AST SpaceMobile (ASTS 0.36%) is one of several emerging technology stocks with little or no revenue that have taken the market by storm this year. A competitor to Elon Musk's Starlink, AST SpaceMobile makes satellites that provide broadband in places traditional cell towers don't.
Through Nov. 17, the stock is up 168% this year, even after a recent pullback as the market has tumbled on fears of an AI bubble and a weakening economy.
AST was trading in penny-stock range for much of its history, meaning it's made some early investors rich. But past performance doesn't guarantee future returns on the stock market.
Still, investors are likely wondering if the stock can keep up its dramatic bull run. On that note, let's take a look at two things investors should know about the stock.
Image source: AST SpaceMobile.
AST SpaceMobile's track record is thin
AST shares have skyrocketed, but the gains are almost entirely based on speculation and its own forecasts.
AST is just starting to commercialize its business and recorded $14.7 million in the third quarter of 2025, primarily driven by hitting U.S. government milestones, which was more than triple what it made in all of 2024.
The company has built significant momentum, signing more than $1 billion in revenue commitments with partners like Verizon, Vodafone, and Saudi Arabia's stc Group. The company has launched its first five BlueBird satellites and expects to launch its BlueBird 6 in December.
While the business is clearly making progress, the stock has already earned a market cap of $20 billion, even though the company just started to commercialize its business. In other words, high expectations are priced into the stock, and it will likely be years before the stock's valuation reaches a reasonable level and before the company turns a profit.
Compay guidance called for $50 million to $75 million in second-half revenue, implying about $50 million in revenue in the fourth quarter. The company is aiming to have 45 to 60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026, a significant ramp in operations. In other words, 2026 will be a major test for the stock.
NASDAQ: ASTS
Key Data Points
The telecom industry has been a dud recently
AST's customer base is made up primarily of telecoms, and investors may want to keep valuations in perspective as the industry has been notorious for slow growth, low valuations, and large debt burdens.
AST's market cap has pulled back a bit, but Verizon, one of the telecom giants it is selling to, has a market cap of $172 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 9.
AST, of course, is growing much faster than telecom operators like Verizon, but investors should be mindful that telecom and broadband are ultimately a mature industry, and only a fraction of their revenue is going to go to satellite providers like AST.
In other words, the upside potential to AST may be more limited than investors seem to think. While there is room for the valuation to increase beyond $20 billion, there is a ceiling unless the company expands beyond broadband.
