Shares of Sigma Lithium (SGML +3.41%) rallied 55.1% this week through Thursday trading, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Sigma Lithium is a lithium miner with ownership of several mines in Brazil. As such, it's highly levered to lithium prices. Lithium prices are currently in a bear market, with the price per kilogram of lithium carbonate having declined by approximately 90% since the metal's early 2023 highs, before this month's partial recovery.
This week, several industry participants and analysts predicted an additional rebound ahead.
NASDAQ: SGML
Key Data Points
Positive demand out of China, and Wall Street analysts respond
On Monday, Ganfeng Lithium Group chairman Li Liangbin said he believed lithium demand will rebound by 30% to 40% in 2026, and that lithium prices could reach between 150,000 yuan per ton and 200,000 yuan per ton next year. Gangeng Lithium is the second-largest lithium processor in the world, so when Liangbin made his comments, lithium prices rallied, finishing up 9% on the day to 95,200 yuan per ton, before hitting as high as 100,000 yuan per ton on Wednesday.
On the heels of that bullish commentary by a large industry peer, sell-side analysts at Canaccord Genuity raised their price target on Standard Lithium stock on Wednesday, adding to the week's rally. Canaccord set a new 14.00 Canadian dollar (CAD) price target for the stock, significantly higher than the 10.92 CAD price as of Wednesday morning and the 8.49 CAD price at the start of the week.
Image source: Getty Images.
Miners are risky, but the lithium chart is compelling
Mining stocks can be highly risky, as volatile changes in the underlying commodity's price can have a significantly greater impact on these companies' financials, given their fixed costs and operational expenses.
Nevertheless, with lithium prices having fallen so much from 2022 due to the EV slowdown, a long bottoming process already having occurred, and electric vehicles continuing to grow strongly in China, Sigma's stock, which is still down over 75% from its 2023 highs, could be a compelling turnaround trade.
