Home Depot (HD +3.30%) is the clear leader in the home improvement market, generating trailing-12-month sales of $166 billion. This puts it well ahead of its closest competitor in the industry, Lowe's ($84.3 billion). But serving a key part of the U.S. economy, which is what Home Depot does, doesn't automatically mean investors will achieve outsize returns from owning shares.
If you'd invested $10,000 in this retail stock three years ago, here's how much you'd have today.
Image source: Home Depot.
Home Depot has had a disappointing showing
In the past three years, Home Depot has produced a total return of 16.9% (as of Nov. 22), turning $10,000 into $11,690 today (including dividends). For comparison's sake, the S&P 500 index saw a notable 74.6% total return during that time period.
NYSE: HD
Key Data Points
Weak fundamentals are driving the narrative
Home Depot posted strong double-digit revenue growth in fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2021, as demand from households to tackle renovation projects soared. Things have cooled dramatically. Same-store sales decreased 3.2% in fiscal 2023 and by 1.8% in fiscal 2024. They were essentially flat in Q3 2025 (ended Nov. 2).
Macro headwinds, like higher interest rates and an uncertain view of the economy, continue to put pressure on big-ticket consumer spending.
However, CEO Ted Decker says there is a "$50 billion cumulative under spend in normal repair and remodel activity in U.S. housing." Once economic conditions improve, demand might quickly pick up for Home Depot.
