Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson just revealed his newest home-run investment opportunity, and many people are paying attention. It's not hard to see why -- Jackson is widely credited with calling the 100x move in Carvana (CVNA +0.92%) a few years ago, and the more recent 10x move in real estate technology platform Opendoor (OPEN 0.81%).
Jackson's next 100x investment idea is...
I won't keep you in suspense. In a lengthy series of social media posts, Jackson revealed Nextdoor (NXDR +20.40%) as his next big idea. In his posts, he referred to Nextdoor as "the most mispriced agentic-AI platform of the 2020s."
His thesis has a few components. First, Nextdoor has 100 million verified users, representing real households that are in close-proximity networks. Engagement is relatively low now (only about 20% are weekly active users), but he sees the platform as becoming the "operating system for the neighborhood" and leveraging agentic AI capabilities to dramatically boost engagement. After all, the platform is a natural fit for agentic lead generation. For example, if you type "I need a plumber who can come fix this today," Nextdoor could potentially facilitate it.
CEO Nirav Tolia, who co-founded the business and returned to lead it once again in 2024, is another major factor. Jackson highlighted the progress the company has made in the 18 months since his return. For example, the platform got a complete refresh, reduced spam alerts, reached positive EBITDA, and more.
Jackson described some specific valuation targets. He argued that Nextdoor should be worth about $11 per share now (it's about $2) by applying a more appropriate price-to-sales multiple, especially because Nextdoor has a cash-rich balance sheet with no debt at all.
In all, he sees the potential for $5.7 billion in high-margin revenue between advertising and lead generation by the end of this decade. Based on valuations of other agentic commerce platforms, he sees the potential for a $142.5 billion enterprise value, which would translate into $374 per share. That's about 150 times Nextdoor's current share price, even after the spike caused by Jackson's posts.
There's a lot that would need to go well for Nextdoor
To be sure, Jackson makes some excellent points about the potential for agentic AI commerce in a neighborhood-focused platform. But it's important to keep in mind that there's a lot that would need to go right for his thesis to play out. After all, if it were easy to spot the next 100-baggers, we'd all be very wealthy. And it's worth pointing out that while Jackson loves to highlight his winners, he's had quite a few investments that didn't turn out like he wanted. Keep this in mind before investing and be sure to do your own research into the current state of Nextdoor's business.
