Nvidia (NVDA +0.47%) has delivered phenomenal growth powered by artificial intelligence (AI) over several years. I contend that the company could reach annual revenue as high as $1 trillion by the end of this decade (fiscal year 2031 ending January 2031).
Here are some factors that support the claim.
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Growth catalysts
Analysts expect Nvidia's fiscal 2026 revenue to be around $213 billion. To hit annual revenue of $1 trillion in fiscal 2031, the company has to grow revenue at a compounded annual growth rate of roughly 36% for the next five years.
My projection exceeds Wall Street's consensus revenue estimate of $550.5 billion for fiscal 2031, but I believe it is plausible if you factor in the very real possibility Nvidia's data center business will grow at a pace similar to that of global AI capex.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Management has already noted $500 billion worth of demand for Nvidia's Blackwell and Rubin system orders this year and next. Of this, $150 billion worth of orders have already shipped. Nvidia also signed multi-year, high-value deals with Anthropic and the Saudi Public Investment Fund's AI company HUMAIN, which represents additional multi-billion-dollar demand.
Besides this multi-year demand, Nvidia's aggressive annual product updates also accelerated the pace of GPU upgrades from the previous three- to five-year cycle for custom silicon to 12- to 18-month cycles. Nvidia launched Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra architectures in 2025, and is gearing to launch Rubin architecture in 2026, Rubin Ultra in 2027, and Feynman in 2028. This pulls forward demand and can further add multiple mega-deals for the company.
Management expects the annual AI infrastructure opportunity to be in the range of $3 trillion to $4 trillion by the end of 2030. According to tech analyst Beth Kindig, Nvidia currently accounts for almost 50% of the annual AI infrastructure spend. Hence, if Nvidia can capture even 20% to 25% share of the AI infrastructure spend in 2030, the company can reach annual revenues in the range of $600 billion to even $1 trillion in fiscal 2031.
