Quantum computing investing was all the rage throughout the end of 2024. Momentum and excitement slowly built throughout the middle of 2025 before peaking in October. Then quantum computing stocks came crashing down at the start of 2025. The volatility of this investment sector shouldn't surprise anyone, as quantum computing is an emerging technology that's still working toward becoming commercially viable. Right now, it's no different than biotech start-ups, as they are companies looking to hit a home run or strike out trying.
IonQ (IONQ 0.30%) is one of the more popular options in this space, and its stock hasn't been exempt from the volatility. Although its stock is up around 30% so far this year, that figure was as high as 96% just a few weeks ago. The question is, could IonQ stage a monstrous comeback in 2026? Let's find out.
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IonQ's approach to quantum computing is unique
There are multiple ways to harness the power of quantum mechanics in a quantum computer. IonQ uses a technology known as trapped ion, which has advantages and disadvantages. For one thing, the trapped ion technique is inherently more accurate than competing processes like superconducting. IonQ holds the world record for the most accurate quantum computer, achieving 99.99% 2-qubit gate fidelity. This is an important measure, as it conveys the accuracy of a computer after performing two functions. A 99.99% rate indicates it made one error in every 10,000 calculations. While that may not sound like many errors, that's still well behind the error rate of a traditional computer. Furthermore, it's not good enough to be deployed in a commercial setting.
NYSE: IONQ
Key Data Points
Although quantum computers aren't going to be used to power spreadsheets, imagine if you were making an Excel spreadsheet and one out of every 10,000 cells had the wrong value, but you didn't know which one it was. That's a huge problem, and makes the technology unusable. IonQ and its peers are rapidly progressing toward increased accuracy, but it will be some time before quantum computing technology is capable of being used successfully on a commercial level.
IonQ holds a fairly sizable lead, with most competitors struggling to breach the 99.9% 2-qubit gate fidelity threshold, indicating one error in every 1,000 operations. Time will tell if this lead for IonQ holds up, as useful quantum computing is years away. Most companies point toward 2030 as the year when quantum computing will be available for commercial use. A lot can happen between now and then, and IonQ will have to fend off some fierce competition.
IonQ's competitors could have an advantage if they close the accuracy gap
The rival method, superconducting, may not be as accurate, but it has superior processing speeds. With accuracy being the key problem right now, being fast isn't really an advantage. However, if any of these companies closes the accuracy gap, they will have an advantage over IonQ's trapped ion process.
While there are some smaller upstarts similar to IonQ that are employing this technique, it's also the path tech giants like Microsoft and Alphabet have taken. These companies have resources that the quantum computing start-ups could only dream of, and with how expensive quantum computing can be, these resources could prove to be the deciding factor between failure and success.
With useful quantum computing still years away, IonQ's success in 2026 depends on two factors. First, the market must have an appetite for risk. If the market decides to de-risk itself (like it did in October), then IonQ's stock could struggle next year. The second factor is IonQ's accuracy advantages. If IonQ can widen its gap between itself and the competition in terms of accuracy, it could start to build enough of a gap to reach a useful threshold sooner. This could give IonQ a first-mover advantage and allow it to establish the market before anyone else does. If it does that, it would also be a wildly successful investment.
It's a coin toss deciding how IonQ's stock will do in 2026. But, if you're confident in IonQ's approach to quantum computing, then I think it can be a solid investment option in this space.
