During its first couple of years in the public markets, SoFi Technologies (SOFI 4.40%) was a losing investment. However, with fantastic financial performance, the fintech stock has worked out quite well for patient investors.
In the past three years, the share price has risen by an astonishing 521% (as of Dec. 12). But where will SoFi's stock be in 10 years?
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SoFi is taking the financial services industry by storm
SoFi has made a name for itself in the financial-services industry by using data and technology to its advantage. It might be no coincidence that the company came onto the scene at the same time as smartphones and the internet started finding greater adoption. Its focus on attracting a younger and more affluent user base was also deliberate.
The company's growth, supported by its superior user experience, is noteworthy. Even in uncertain economic times, it was able to increase customers from 11.7 million a year ago to 12.6 million now.
Revenue rose 38% during that same period. Ongoing innovation to introduce new products and services has been a focal point. SoFi one day hopes to be a top 10 financial institution in the U.S., according to the words of CEO Anthony Noto.
Earnings will be a key driving force
In the near term, market sentiment weighs more than anything else on a stock. Changes in valuation multiples can have a profound impact on share prices. This is almost impossible to predict.
However, over a long time horizon, such as a decade, one of the most important factors that can impact investor returns is the earnings trajectory. Throughout several years, it's the bottom line that can run the show. A company that will generate significantly higher profits 10 years down the line should probably be worth a lot more than it is today.
Of course, the starting valuation still matters. If you pay an egregious forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), for instance, it can be difficult for profits to make up for it. In this case, SoFi stock trades at a forward P/E multiple of 45.
On the surface, this looks expensive. But given the company's impressive growth prospects, investors willing to look out far enough might still be interested.
SoFi just became profitable on a GAAP basis in the fourth quarter of 2023. Since then, the business has seen its bottom line expand rapidly. After the company registered adjusted net income of $227 million in 2024, management is forecasting $455 million this year, translating to an exceptional 100% year-over-year increase. Wall Street consensus analyst estimates call for earnings per share to rise at a compound annual rate of 49% between 2025 and 2027, a very encouraging outlook.
NASDAQ: SOFI
Key Data Points
As mentioned, customer additions and revenue growth remain impressive. While these tailwinds probably won't keep up at the same pace ahead, SoFi's small size in the industry and intense focus on innovation stack the odds in its favor. It should be a much larger organization a decade from now, with a bigger user base and broader suite of products and services offered.
This positions earnings to keep growing quickly. One obvious reason is SoFi's digital-only business model. It doesn't need to spend meaningful capital on building out a physical network of branches. This supports scalability.
Financial institutions can be extremely profitable at scale. Just look at the gold standard in the industry, JPMorgan Chase. The top bank posted a stellar net income margin of 31% in Q3. SoFi's operations aren't exactly the same as JPMorgan Chase, but it has the benefit of being fully digital. As SoFi keeps leveraging its expenses, it's in a good position for earnings to climb.
If SoFi's profits are much higher a decade from now, I'm confident its stock price will do very well between now and 2035. It all comes down to how well management can execute.
