The S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.28%) has advanced 15% year to date, while Bitcoin (BTC 0.86%) has declined 5%. If that pattern holds, it will mark the first year since 2014 where the S&P 500 has risen while Bitcoin has declined, according to Bloomberg.
What happened last time? Bitcoin outperformed by a wide margin during the following year. Specifically, while the S&P 500 traded sideways in 2015, Bitcoin soared 38%. Certain Wall Street analysts expect Bitcoin to rebound in a similar fashion next year.
Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered and Gautam Chhugani at Bernstein expect Bitcoin to hit $150,000 in 2026. Both forecasts are downward revisions from their previous estimates, reflecting a more difficult market environment, but they still imply 74% upside from the current price of $86,000.
However, Standard Chartered and Bernstein see more robust gains in the future. Kendrick estimates Bitcoin will hit $500,000 by 2030 (implying 480% upside), and Chhugani expects the coin to hit $1 million by 2033 (implying 1,060% upside).
Here's what investors should know.
Image source: Getty Images.
The investment thesis for Bitcoin
The investment thesis for Bitcoin centers on the idea that demand will increase in the coming years as institutional investors diversify their portfolios and corporations integrate digital assets into their treasury strategies. Driving forces behind that demand include simplified adoption through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and greater regulatory clarity, especially in the United States.
To elaborate, spot Bitcoin ETFs eliminate barriers (e.g., managing multiple accounts, high fees) associated with cryptocurrency exchanges, letting investors buy Bitcoin through their existing brokerage accounts. In turn, the number of large asset managers with positions in the iShares Bitcoin Trust -- the largest spot Bitcoin ETF -- increased 150% in the past year. And the amount of Bitcoin held by public and private companies rose 60%.
Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives approved the Clarity Act in July, which clarifies digital asset jurisdiction. Senate approval is expected in 2026. Congress also passed the GENIUS Act in July, creating a regulatory framework for stablecoins. While not explicitly related to Bitcoin, it shows digital assets are becoming more mainstream, which should incentivize institutional and corporate adoption.
Indeed, State Street Investment Management recently wrote, "Institutions are embracing Bitcoin for its diversification, long-term growth, and improving regulatory clarity."
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
History says Bitcoin could have another difficult year in 2026
Bitcoin has historically peaked 12 to 18 months following each halving event. Afterward, its price has typically fallen over the next 12 to 18 months, then gradually recovered until the next halving event. The current cycle is following that pattern.
The last Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024. Nearly 18 months later, in October 2025, its price peaked at around $125,000. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin will decline into late 2026 or early 2027, then its price will gradually rebound as the fifth halving event nears in mid-2028.
There is another reason to think 2026 will be challenging for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency closed in bear market territory (i.e., down 20% from its bull market high) in November 2025, something that has now happened seven times since 2021. Following the last six incidents, Bitcoin returned an average of 0% over the next 12 months.
Here's the big picture: A few Wall Street analysts have issued optimistic target prices for Bitcoin in 2026, and their reasoning largely centers on spot Bitcoin ETFs driving adoption among institutional investors. However, history says Bitcoin could deliver lackluster returns next year, so investors uncomfortable with holding it for several (potentially volatile) years should never buy it in the first place.
