It's not easy being a Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI 0.58%) shareholder. The stock has declined 10% in 2025, shedding two-thirds of its value over the past five years.
The upside to the downside is that the stock is cheap. The satellite radio monopoly is trading for just 6.6 times forward earnings. There's also a beefy -- and for now, sustainable -- 5.2% dividend yield. There are a lot of moving parts to the Sirius XM story. If it's going to bounce back in 2026, a few things will have to go right. Let's go over three things to watch in Sirius XM stock in the year ahead.
Image source: Sirius XM Holdings.
1. Can Sirius XM really start growing again?
Revenue is declining for the third year in a row. The bottom line is showing signs of improving, but trailing net income is still nearly 25% below where it was four years ago.
Against this ho-hum backdrop, the new year offers a glimmer of hope. Analysts see revenue climbing a mere 0.2%, but even that's a welcome reversal after three years of sliding. Those same Wall Street pros see earnings per share rising 12% in 2026.
Growth matters for an out-of-favor stock. Renewed growth, even if it's the most marginal of increases on the top line, reshapes the narrative. Valuation multiples have the wiggle room to expand, and that's on top of the rising fundamentals.
NASDAQ: SIRI
Key Data Points
2. Can Howard Stern and $200 million in savings co-exist?
Sirius XM has gotten good about doing more with less. Even as its subscriber count has gradually declined, it's finding ways to cut corners. It scored $350 million of run rate savings in 2023 and 2024. Last December it was targeting another $200 million in annualized savings by the end of this year.
Moving on from Howard Stern next week -- when his fourth five-year contract runs out -- would have helped it shave half of that goal. However, Sirius XM signed a new three-year deal with the morning show icon last week. With Sirius XM expanding its talk content in recent years as a way to counter the potential departure of Stern, does it have the wiggle room to continue cutting costs in 2026? That may be a headwind, but at least its radio platform will be stronger.
3. Will Berkshire Hathaway buy or sell shares of Sirius XM in 2023?
Sirius XM's largest shareholder is Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.46%) (BRK.B 0.34%). It has increased its stake in back-to-back years, and Berkshire Hathaway investors own a whopping 37.1% stake in the Sirius XM.
Berkshire Hathaway doesn't stand still. Will it continue to boost its position, potentially acquiring all of Sirius XM? Will it move on, selling at least a chunk of his stake in 2026? The answer to all three of these questions will go a long way in dictating the stock's chances of bouncing back in the year ahead.
