Investors in Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT 2.43%) have been on quite the roller-coaster ride over the past 12 months. The stock has declined by more than 30% over the past year, despite touching a 52-week high of $25.84 in late September.
With all the hype surrounding the potential of quantum computing, where QCi's stock goes next will largely depend on how much commercial traction it can garner in the coming year. Last week's acquisition announcement could help reverse its downward slide, but many questions persist.
NASDAQ: QUBT
Key Data Points
Quantum computing moving from hype to reality
On Dec. 15, QCi made an unexpected and aggressive move to expand its footprint in the quantum tech industry. It's acquiring Luminar Semiconductor, a subsidiary of lidar sensor specialist Luminar Technologies (LAZR 4.81%), in an all-cash deal worth $110 million. This move is significant for QCi, as it marks a shift away from R&D and into revenue-generating hardware, as Luminar Semiconductor does have active customers for its photonic technologies. On the same day, Luminar Technologies filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, but the semiconductor subsidiary is not a debtor in that case.
The deal likely won't close for another year, though, which leaves plenty of room for error and healthy skepticism over the impacts of the acquisition.
Image source: Getty Images.
While investors will have to wait for a bankruptcy court to approve the deal, QCi does have a first-mover advantage. The company develops quantum photonics hardware and systems. It holds several valuable patents in the field, in areas ranging from quantum computing to imaging and sensing to cybersecurity.
Strong headwinds in the near term
QCi's stock skyrocketed in the third quarter after Lake Street Capital Markets initiated coverage of the company with a buy rating and a $24 per share price target. That bullish outlook sent the stock soaring for a week straight.
Even so, the company's financials leave a lot to be desired for long-term investors. It also has a dilution problem, with more than 224 million shares outstanding and a market cap exceeding $2.7 billion. QCi has repeatedly engaged in large secondary stock offerings to raise capital. In the past three years alone, it has quadrupled the number of shares outstanding. This type of shareholder dilution rightfully makes investors cautious and nervous.
Yes, the company's potential future is exciting, but there are plenty of challenges still ahead in the near term. First and foremost, Quantum Computing Inc.'s revenues are dwarfed by its expenses, particularly in R&D. Through the first nine months of 2025, it reported revenues of $484,000 compared to $29 million in operating expenses.
Will the downward trend reverse?
It's still early in the game for the entire quantum computing space, and the technology is not yet commercially viable. It won't become clear anytime soon which of the many competitors in the race will emerge as winners. And the actual size of the total addressable market for this type of technology is likewise foggy.
As we gradually get closer to understanding the real-world implications of quantum computing technology, we'll also gain a better idea about how much revenue QCi could potentially capture.
In the meantime, the fate of this stock will remain closely tied to overall market sentiment, but also to whether the Luminar Semiconductor acquisition is successful. QCi is still in a precarious financial position, and its stock is still a high-risk, speculative investment.
