Bitcoin (BTC 0.71%) had a rough 2025. The hopes and expectations of many investors were dashed, including mine, and some of the coin's most enduring narratives got dented a bit.
This year is likely to be better for holders, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will be a smooth ride, nor does it mean that the years that come after will be easy ones. With that in mind, here are three things that I predict about Bitcoin's year ahead.
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1. It will end 2026 higher than in 2025
My first prediction is that Bitcoin finishes 2026 above where it finished 2025. In 2025, the coin ran up earlier in the year to make new all-time highs, then fell far enough that it ended the year down more than 30% from its peak.
The mechanism for a better year-end finish is essentially the same as the bull thesis from 2025, which is to say demand for the asset will continue to meet a stubbornly constrained new supply schedule thanks to the halving in 2024.
Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) now represent a real demand channel, which could also help to moderate the coin's volatility a bit. Corporate treasuries and digital asset treasury (DAT) companies represent another new channel for demand, both of which tend to accumulate the coin for the purpose of long-term holding, making the supply picture even more favorable for holders (and worse for later buyers).
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A third new channel is sovereign involvement, which includes the formation of strategic reserves of Bitcoin. Governments tend to be even less willing to sell their assets than the previously existing classes of holders, so it could push the coin's price up substantially over time.
2. The quantum computing conversation will progress
As you may have heard, Bitcoin transactions rely on cryptographic signatures, and the common signature scheme used in Bitcoin is theoretically breakable using a sufficiently capable quantum computer.
This is not a next-month problem, as such quantum computers don't exist yet, and they probably won't exist for a while. But imagine how much you would want to hold a coin that a hacker could deprive you of with ease, and you will immediately understand why adapting Bitcoin to become quantum-secure is such an important issue for its future.
Knowing this, Bitcoin's investor and developer communities are starting to coalesce around the idea that developing a mitigation strategy to address the threat of quantum computing is something that's a high priority There are numerous proposals for how to accomplish that, and the actual implementation of pretty much anything is going to take a while and likely won't even start for a couple of years at the earliest as there's currently no consensus.
Nonetheless, I predict that the consensus on the best way forward will form in large part during 2026. If it doesn't, holding Bitcoin is going to get a whole lot riskier with every new headline about the increasing sophistication of quantum computers -- and that technology is a bit of a hot area right now, to say the least.
3. Bitcoin won't match gold's parabolic run
My third prediction is that Bitcoin will not mirror gold's parabolic path in 2026, in contradiction to the many investors who have been positing that it will for most of 2025.
For context, gold just had an exceptional 2025, with a rapid run of new all-time highs and a return north of 69%. Bitcoin can still rise substantially in the same macroclimate that caused investors to flock to gold, but the two assets don't recruit and retain investors or capital in the same way, so they won't perform in the same way.
Gold is widely understood, widely permitted on institutional balance sheets, and psychologically easier to hold when things get rough. Bitcoin is still earning its status as a store of value, and it does so while delivering a more intense emotional experience due to its volatility -- and that's the opposite of gold, at least most of the time.
