Bitcoin (BTC +2.78%) may have finished 2025 slightly in the red, but that didn't stop it from being a breakout year for the lead cryptocurrency. It rallied to new highs, buoyed by optimism about a pro-crypto administration and other developments.
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Even so, the end of the year brought investor jitters and liquidity challenges that may well continue in the short term. However, Cardano (ADA +5.14%) founder Charles Hoskinson still predicts Bitcoin could reach $250,000 in 2026 -- an almost 175% upside on today's (Jan. 11) price. Whether or not you're a Cardano fan, he's an experienced and perceptive crypto voice.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
Why Hoskinson thinks Bitcoin could reach $250,000
Hoskinson told Altcoin Daily that he believes Bitcoin will soar next year because of high institutional demand. Bitcoin supply is fixed, so if there's increased demand from financial institutions and nation states, the logic is that it will push the price up.
He points out that Morgan Stanley has told private wealth advisors they pitch crypto to any client. Previously, the line was that advisors could only suggest crypto to wealthy clients with a high risk tolerance. Now they can guide any client to take a position of up to 4%.
Hoskinson says Bitcoin is more likely to benefit from these moves. All cryptocurrencies carry risk, which is why Morgan Stanley advocates limited exposure. However, Bitcoin -- the first-ever cryptocurrency -- has more legitimacy and more staying power than smaller projects. If investors start to put more Bitcoin into their 401(k)s and other structured products, it may well drive it to new highs this year.
Factors that might hold Bitcoin back
Hoskinson gave two major caveats to his prediction: A fall from grace for artificial intelligence (AI) companies, or wobbles from digital-asset treasury companies (DATs) such as Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy) could both hamper Bitcoin's growth.
Falling crypto prices have raised questions about the value of companies that hold crypto on their balance sheets. The trend that took off in 2025 is already starting to lose its shine. According to BitcoinTreasuries.net, almost 40% of Bitcoin treasury companies are currently worth less than the Bitcoin they hold.
Another possible headwind could come from the increasing correlation between crypto and tech companies. If AI companies like Nvidia fall dramatically in 2026, that would likely have a significant impact on crypto prices.
Hoskinson is also watching lawmakers closely. The industry has high hopes for further crypto legislation that sets clear definitions around different types of digital assets and what comes under the remit of each governing bodies. There's a bill with the Senate now, but a number of issues still to be resolved.
Regulatory progress -- or the lack thereof -- could be significant for cryptocurrencies across the board. As is often the case with Bitcoin, the year ahead could bring significant growth, but it's important to watch the clouds on the horizon as well.
