Dogecoin (DOGE +1.48%) is a perfect example of how financial markets can evolve to introduce unique and esoteric asset classes to the masses. A decade ago, very few people were thinking about cryptocurrencies. Today, this industry has a market cap of $3.2 trillion. And it has spawned popular meme tokens like Dogecoin.
Lucky investors have certainly generated vast wealth betting on this dog-themed crypto. Its price is up an astonishing 1,350% just in the past five years (as of Jan. 13), although volatility has been stomach-churning. That gain was achieved even though Dogecoin currently trades 81% below its peak.
Is this a buy-the-dip opportunity that could work out well for investors over the next five years? Or is Dogecoin better left out of your portfolio?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Betting on community support is a hard game to play
Dogecoin, like a lot of other cryptocurrencies, benefits from strong community support. It has been around since 2013, making it one of the veterans in this wild industry. Being in the game long enough has allowed it to attract followers who want to see it succeed.
On X (formerly Twitter), Dogecoin's official account has 4.3 million followers. That's more than the 4 million followers that Ethereum has. This might be a head-scratching discovery, especially since Ethereum's market cap is 16 times larger than Dogecoin's. Bitcoin, the world's most valuable cryptocurrency, has 8.2 million X followers. But its market cap of $1.9 trillion is 78 times Dogecoin's. This means that Dogecoin is punching well above its weight in terms of community interest on a major social media platform.
If nothing else, these followers can provide a floor for Dogecoin's price because there will always be interest. This means that five years from now, it won't be completely worthless. However, it's impossible to accurately predict how much community support there will be in the future.
Dogecoin's utility is limited
If investors are looking for blockchains built with smart contracts, then Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano might present more promising opportunities than Dogecoin. Dogecoin is its own crypto network, and its functionality is limited. There also aren't that many developers working to move the network forward with new and interesting capabilities.
To be fair, though, projects are in the works. For example, GigaWallet allows businesses to quickly accept Dogecoin payments. And DogeOS is intended to be a development layer built on top of Dogecoin to facilitate the introduction of decentralized applications. I'm not sure how much these can move the needle, though. In theory, greater adoption of these features can drive demand for Dogecoin. But there are other cryptocurrencies that are ahead of the curve.
Bulls could point to Dogecoin as a possible store of value. Again, it falls short in this arena. Dogecoin's token supply has no limit, and it expands by 5 billion every single year. This is in stark contrast to Bitcoin, which has a hard cap of 21 million units. And when it comes to stores of value, market participants will likely gravitate to a single cryptocurrency because they believe everyone else will, creating a network effect. Bitcoin is light-years ahead here.
CRYPTO: DOGE
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Volatility and declining interest rule the narrative
There is definitely a chance that Dogecoin provides an adequate return, let's say 15% per year, over the next five years, which would match the S&P 500's average annual return over the past decade. However, I view this as a low-probability outcome.
It's obvious that the market is losing interest. As mentioned, Dogecoin is trading 81% off its record high. And its price fell 61% in 2025. The fact that it's facing an uphill battle on the utility front doesn't help.
Dogecoin could experience price hikes, but these haven't lasted long. And they simply create a highly volatile environment that is best avoided.
Looking out to early 2031, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Dogecoin was worth less than what it is today.
