After topping out at $126,000 last year, Bitcoin (BTC 1.11%) experienced a big sell-off as investors grew concerned about the economy and the trajectory of interest rates, and as Bitcoin whales with vast holdings began selling. However, Bitcoin has been resilient, particularly as geopolitical tensions have mounted.
While expectations for the token in 2026 have been pared back a bit, there's still plenty of room to run, according to Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research. Kendrick thinks the coin is a buy and can surge as much as 55% this year alone.
Cutting his rating, but still bullish
In the crypto world, things can change very fast. There are always seemingly new factors affecting cryptocurrencies, which are more difficult to value than traditional publicly traded stocks, largely because they not backed by businesses that generate earnings and free cash flow, at least in a traditional sense.
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Kendrick has long been bullish on Bitcoin, but he cut his outlook for the world's largest token in December, lowering his 2026 price target from $300,000 per coin to $150,000, which implies about 55% upside from current levels (as of Jan. 15). Part of the reason Kendrick cut his price target is that he is more bearish on digital asset treasury companies, which essentially tap the capital markets to borrow capital that they then use to purchase Bitcoin.
Specifically, we think buying by Bitcoin digital asset treasury companies (DATs) is likely over, as valuations ... no longer support further Bitcoin DAT expansion. We expect a consolidation rather than outright selling, but DAT buying is unlikely to provide further support
DATs got their start when Michael Saylor's Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy) in 2020 used its own capital to buy Bitcoin, and eventually gained enough credibility to begin tapping the capital markets for cash to make still more Bitcoin purchases. The strategy proved very successful, leading to huge gains in the stock. However, many analysts questioned valuations because the stocks of Bitcoin treasury companies traded at huge premiums relative to the amount of Bitcoin they actually owned.
Why go buy a stock trading at a huge premium to its net asset value when you can simply purchase Bitcoin itself? Since the middle of last year, Strategy stock has been plunging. With valuations down, that could also inhibit DATs' ability to raise as much capital for buying Bitcoin.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
However, Kendrick still sees upside from spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). After all, ETFs make it easier for more institutions to invest in crypto, especially with the Trump administration's pro-crypto stance, which has included passing several pieces of legislation and issuing executive orders that should ease investors' regulatory concerns.
Many believe that Bitcoin is a form of digital gold and can therefore hedge against inflation and act as a haven in times of turmoil. Although Bitcoin hasn't always traded this way, the coin has performed well in the month since the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the U.S. Department of Justice's subpoena of the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin has essentially tracked the price of gold during the past month.
Can Bitcoin perform well this year?
Although the environment is not as bullish for cryptocurrencies as the beginning of last year, I still think Bitcoin can perform well, given that geopolitical tensions and debt issues in the U.S. are not going anywhere any time soon. Bitcoin has also proven resilient to huge declines, so it's the crypto I have the most confidence in.
As I've said before, I think investors can own some Bitcoin, which could be a unique form of diversification in a multi-asset portfolio. Obviously, price targets for a sector as risky as crypto are difficult to predict, but holding Bitcoin on a longer-term basis gives investors a better chance of generating good returns.
