Eli Lilly (LLY +0.53%) has behaved more like a tech stock in recent years than like a pharma stock. Tech players are known to soar in the double and triple digits when the environment and corporate news are supportive. Pharmaceutical companies generally take a slower but steady path, and this is due to the fact that patients always need their medicines -- this supports revenue stability over time.
So, why has Lilly become a growth stock? The company has established leadership in an area of high demand: the weight loss drug market. Lilly sells tirzepatide, sold under the name Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss. Together, these drugs delivered more than $10 billion in revenue in the latest quarter and helped the company's overall revenue soar in the double digits.
I think this momentum is far from over. In fact, my prediction is that 2026 will be the year of Eli Lilly. And this is for one specific reason...
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Lilly's blockbuster revenue
As mentioned, Lilly has generated blockbuster revenue thanks to its weight loss portfolio. Doctors have prescribed either of the injectable drugs for weight control, and demand has been high. It even resulted in drug shortages a couple of years ago until Lilly expanded its manufacturing capacity.
Demand continues to march on, and analysts predict that the obesity drug market will approach $100 billion by the end of this decade.
Right now, Lilly shares the market with Novo Nordisk, maker of Ozempic and Wegovy, but Lilly has advanced due to the efficacy of its drugs and its aggressive buildout of manufacturing infrastructure to meet demand.
NYSE: LLY
Key Data Points
A potential new launch
Why do I expect this year to be a big one for Lilly? Because the company may soon launch a key product: a weight loss pill. Lilly applied for the regulatory review of orforglipron late last year, and trial results have been solid. A pill could be a significant product for two reasons: It's more convenient for patients to take on the go and avoids a needle stick -- something many aren't too fond of. And for Lilly, a pill is cheaper and easier to manufacture than an injectable in pen format.
Rival Novo recently won approval for its weight loss pill, but I'm confident Lilly's potential pill would win market share. After taking Novo's Wegovy pill, patients must avoid food and drink for half an hour; Lilly's doesn't involve any dietary restrictions, making it extremely easy to fit into a daily routine.
A possible approval of orforglipron, initial revenue from the drug, and ongoing revenue from the rest of the weight loss portfolio should generate significant growth. And that's why I predict that 2026 may be the year of Eli Lilly.
