In 2022, Intel (INTC 5.68%) announced a $28 billion investment in two new leading-edge chip factories in Ohio. This investment was part of Intel's plan to become a world-class foundry serving external customers. Originally, chip production was slated to begin in 2025.
Intel has delayed the Ohio project multiple times as the company struggled to win external foundry customers. When Lip-Bu Tan took over as CEO in early 2025, it became reasonable to ask whether the fabs would ever be completed. Tan made it clear that the Intel 14A process node, set to launch in 2027, would proceed only if the company could win meaningful external customers. As of now, 2030 is the target date for the first fab in Ohio to begin producing chips.
Image source: Intel.
Two signs that Intel 14A will be a winner
Intel 18A, the process node that is now ramping in Arizona and used for Intel's Panther Lake PC CPUs, got off to a rough start. Intel reportedly struggled with yield problems, and large external customers remain elusive.
The situation seems to have improved. An analyst noted earlier this month that yields for Intel 18A are now over 60% and improving, which is good enough to support the Panther Lake launch. The analyst also reiterated that Apple was likely to use Intel for manufacturing some of its chips on Intel 18A in addition to exploring Intel 14A for future chips.
While Intel 18A may not be the home run Intel needed to prove its foundry strategy was working, at the very least, it appears the node will be successful and profitable in the long run. That leaves Intel 14A as the true proving ground for Intel. The company must win meaningful external customers well ahead of the start of production for its foundry business to succeed.
Two recent signs indicate that Intel 14A is on track. First, the construction company building Intel's Ohio fabs recently posted a handful of new jobs related to the construction of the facilities. While some progress has been made over the past three years, this could indicate that construction is ramping up.
On its own, the job posting news isn't enough to draw any real conclusions. However, Tan recently made remarks in an Intel News video on X that are the polar opposite of his cautious statements about the Intel 14A process in 2025. "We are going big time into 14A. Stay tuned, we are going to see a lot of great momentum on the 14A in terms of yields [and] IP portfolio to serve the customer well," said Tan.
This statement suggests that Intel is confident that it can win significant external customers for the Intel 14A process. Combined with the hiring news, it could also be a sign that Intel is trying to advance the timeline for its Ohio fabs. If chip production doesn't begin until 2030, that's likely too late to support the Intel 14A process.
It's certainly possible that Intel could get the first Ohio fab up and running in 2028 or 2029. If the company has a customer for Intel 14A outside its own product divisions, it would likely be for chips launching in that time frame. The Apple rumor suggests the company is considering using Intel 14A for some chips in 2029.
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What does this mean for Intel stock?
Intel is set to report its fourth-quarter results on Thursday after the market closes. While the company may not have anything to announce related to the foundry just yet, a more aggressive Ohio construction timeline or the disclosure of a major external foundry customer would almost certainly light a fire under the stock.
Increasing the likelihood of Intel 14A's success is the chronic shortage of advanced manufacturing capacity at foundry leader TSMC. That situation isn't going to change anytime soon, so Intel could stand to benefit over the next few years as chip designers scramble to secure capacity. TSMC recently bumped up its capital spending plans, but building new fabs can take years.
Through much of 2025, Intel's foundry business appeared to be teetering on the edge of disaster, with no major external customers and problematic yields. The story has become much brighter in 2026, and if the Ohio hiring news and Tan's statements are any indication, Intel could have major foundry announcements coming in the next year. If Intel can remove any doubt surrounding its foundry strategy, the stock could continue to rally as the company taps into soaring demand for advanced chip manufacturing.
