Last year was a challenging one for Viking Therapeutics (VKTX +3.64%), a mid-cap biotech. The company made little clinical progress and, in fact, one of the major data readouts it released was not well received by the market, leading to a sell-off. Over the trailing 12-month period, Viking Therapeutics' shares have lagged the S&P 500. But could Viking perform much better this year?
Plenty of analysts on Wall Street think so. The company boasts an average price target of $93.39 (according to Yahoo! Finance), implying an upside of 175% from its current levels. Can Viking Therapeutics soar by that much in 2026?
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Potential catalysts on the horizon
Viking Therapeutics' leading candidate is VK2735, an investigational GLP-1 medicine it is developing for weight management. A subcutaneous version of this therapy is currently in a 78-week phase 3 study. Viking's phase 3 results for VK2735 will be the most significant event for the company in a long time, potentially leading to its share price soaring overnight, provided the results are strong.
However, considering the trial completed enrollment in late 2025, we are unlikely to see full results anytime soon. The biotech will likely reveal those in 2027. Could we see an interim analysis in 2026? Maybe, but it's not clear. Viking Therapeutics is also running a phase 1 maintenance study for VK2735, testing daily oral, weekly oral, and monthly injection regimens in a small number of patients who have already achieved weight loss with VK2735.
Why is this important? Losing weight and keeping it off are two different things. Many GLP-1 patients regain much of what they lose, and drugmakers are increasingly developing strategies to help with that. If Viking can show that continuing VK2735, in a different formulation (oral) or at different intervals (monthly versus weekly), can help keep the weight off, that would be an interesting differentiator for the medicine.
NASDAQ: VKTX
Key Data Points
Looking at the short term and beyond
It would take a lot for Viking Therapeutics' shares to jump by 175% this year. The maintenance study is unlikely to get it there, since phase 1 studies tend to prioritize safety and tolerability (things that won't significantly jolt the stock price even if they are strong) over efficacy. So, even if this maintenance study goes well, it won't help Viking's shares more than double this year.
And phase 3 data for VK2735 might not come until 2027 either. Where does that leave Viking Therapeutics? Without major catalysts on the horizon, the biotech stock is unlikely to reach the heights Wall Street predicts. The more important question for investors is whether the stock is worth buying and holding for at least the next five years, regardless of what happens in 2026.
And my view is that though it carries somewhat elevated risk (as almost all clinical-stage biotechs do), Viking Therapeutics is an excellent choice for investors with the right amount of risk tolerance. Here's why. The weight loss market is growing rapidly, but there is still a need for new treatment options. Viking's VK2735 performed very well in mid-stage studies.
That doesn't guarantee eventual commercial success, but Viking Therapeutics has expanded its pipeline by developing an oral version of VK2735 alongside the subcutaneous formulation. It will also run late-stage studies across diabetic populations, who have more trouble losing weight. And the maintenance study it is running shows that it is thinking ahead and looking to set its leading candidate apart.
Finally, Viking has other promising pipeline programs. The company's VK2809 performed well in mid-stage studies targeting metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, which remains an area with a high unmet need. Viking Therapeutics has developed a newer weight loss candidate, for which it plans to start clinical trials soon.
With all that going on, Viking Therapeutics' shares could soar in the next couple of years, provided it records strong clinical progress. The stock could also lose significant value if it doesn't, hence the risk. Invest accordingly.
