Nvidia (NVDA +3.82%) stock has scored a win for investors over the past three years. And these haven't been small wins, as the stock has climbed 238%, 171%, and 38% in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. Why such gains? The company has built an empire in one of today's highest-growth and potentially game-changing areas: artificial intelligence (AI). Nvidia's AI chips are the fastest and most powerful available, and that's resulted in soaring demand -- and clear market leadership for the company.
Still, at the start of a new year, investors may wonder just how long this incredible performance -- from both an earnings and a stock-price perspective -- will continue. Late last year, for example, investors worried about AI stocks in general as valuations reached high levels. Well, my prediction is Nvidia still has plenty of room to run, and it will do so in 2026 thanks to this one thing.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Powering key AI tasks
First, before talking about the one element that should drive Nvidia to another annual victory, let's take a quick look at the company's AI story so far. As mentioned, Nvidia has established itself as the AI chip leader, selling the graphics processing units (GPUs) that power some of the most important AI tasks. This means that data centers, serving AI customers, must own a fleet of such chips, as well as supporting products such as networking equipment.
Of course, data centers and other customers can turn to Nvidia's competitors for chips, but Nvidia's are known as the best around -- so tech giants, while also investing in rival chips, have loaded up significantly on Nvidia products over the years. They know that many customers are looking for the strongest computing power available, so they must offer access to Nvidia's systems.
All of this has translated into explosive earnings growth for Nvidia, with revenue and profit climbing in the double or triple digits each quarter. And, as I said above, investors have flocked to this AI winner and benefited from that decision over the past three years.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Why Nvidia will soar
Now, let's consider my prediction. I think Nvidia stock will soar this year, helping it reach a new market cap milestone, and the one element that may spur gains is the following. AI infrastructure spending is on the rise, and Nvidia chief executive officer Jensen Huang says he expects it to reach as much as $4 trillion by the end of the decade. Companies such as Meta Platforms and Alphabet have supported this idea in recent times as they've increased capital spending to fuel the buildout of data centers.
As I noted above, a key element found in AI data centers is the GPU. So, as this investment to potentially $4 trillion unfolds, Nvidia may remain front and center -- and benefit from unstoppable demand for its products. On top of this, the company is set to release its Rubin platform later this year, and as customers build out data centers, they likely will aim to include the latest innovations. This, too, could result in revenue growth for Nvidia.
Of course, up until this point, I've spoken of potential revenue growth for Nvidia this year as infrastructure spending ramps up -- now, let's consider why Nvidia stock price may follow. Overall valuations today are high, with the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio reaching a level it's only hit once before throughout history. But Nvidia's valuation, considering its track record and growth potential, remains reasonable. The stock trades for 39x forward earnings estimates, down from as much as 50x a year ago.
This valuation level, along with the clear need for chips in the AI infrastructure buildout, could supercharge demand for Nvidia stock. That's why I predict that Nvidia may roar higher for a fourth consecutive year and score a win for investors in 2026.
