Nvidia (NVDA 1.53%) stock hasn't been off to a stellar start in 2026. Concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) spending bubble, geopolitical uncertainty impacting sales to China, and perhaps a bit of profit-taking have kept shares about even since the start of the year.
Compare that to the impressive performances of the past three years, and investors may be wondering whether it makes sense to continue holding, or even add, shares. I predict that there is one thing the company will do in 2026 that could help the stock regain its momentum.
Image source: Nvidia.
Underestimating growth
I believe investors have Nvidia exhaustion. The business and the stock have grown so fast for so long that the continued impressive results no longer garner as much surprise, let alone excitement. The stock has already marched nearly 900% higher over the past three years.
Even as management continued to predict higher sales every quarter last year, it beat the midpoint of that guidance by between $1 billion and $3 billion each time. That also helps explain the impressive share price gains.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Nvidia has told investors that it expects fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter sales of $65 billion for the period ending toward the end of January 2026. I predict it will continue its streak and beat that estimate. I also believe the company will continue to raise and beat sales guidance throughout calendar year 2026.
I believe that because China sales haven't been included in the guidance, and the company has received regulatory approval from the U.S. to sell its H200 chips there. Reports also say that CEO Jensen Huang is traveling to China soon, and it wouldn't be surprising to hear him announce then that China is also allowing Nvidia to do business there again.
Even without China, however, Nvidia is well-positioned to deliver upside to sales this year. Spending on data centers and related AI infrastructure doesn't appear to have slowed as many feared. That's a perfect backdrop for Nvidia to beat expectations again this year. If it does, share price gains should follow.
