It's earnings season, and Walt Disney (DIS 1.45%) kicks off next week with fresh financials. The media giant will have a lot to prove when it offers up results for its fiscal first quarter on Monday morning. Its earnings call will take place an hour before the market opens for the day, week, and month.
It will be Groundhog Day, but don't place bets on whether Mickey Mouse will see its shadow. There will already be plenty of interesting things in play, making this potentially Disney's most significant earnings presentation since Bog Iger returned as CEO. Let's go over some of the reasons you might want to wake up early next week.
Image source: Disney.
1. Can Disney put success in succession this time?
Iger's extended four-year contract to run Disney ends later this year. He has been talked into staying before, but this time he seems ready to step down. Last year, Disney's board said it would announce Iger's successor early this year, giving the company more time to pass the torch than when it fumbled the handoff to Bob Chapek in early 2020.
Well, it's early 2026. Analysts and the investor community will be tuning in on Monday morning. The next logical time to drop the news would be Disney's annual shareholder meeting in mid-March, but would Disney really want that kind of sideshow to take place during Iger's final gathering with investors?
Announcing Iger's heir next week would free Disney to focus on the meeting in March. It wouldn't have to deal with any snap judgments, positive or negative, during the meeting itself.
The last viable "investors are gathered" moment would be at Disney's fiscal second-quarter call in early May. That date might work, but it would mean Disney has to dodge succession questions during the shareholder meeting. Assuming Iger and Disney's board already have the next CEO in mind, there's no better time for the new leader to come out of the hole than on Groundhog Day.
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Key Data Points
2. Is this the end of the Avatar franchise?
Disney dominated the box office again in 2025, but the studio's biggest draw wasn't Avatar: Fire and Ash. The third installment in James Cameron's record-breaking franchise will trail China's Ne Zha 2 and Disney's own Zootopia 2 by the time the box office tallies are complete for last year's theatrical releases.
Variety points out that Cameron has made it clear that making the fourth and fifth Avatar films -- currently slated for 2029 and 2031, respectively -- depends on the financial success of Avatar: Fire and Ash. Here's how the three movies have fared worldwide:
- 1. Avatar (2009): $2.9 billion
- 2. Avatar: The Way of Water (2022): $2.3 billion
- 3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (2025): $1.4 billion
Most directors would be thrilled to generate $1.4 billion in global ticket sales, but the first two Avatar films rank among the three highest-grossing films of all time. The third installment is currently looking up at 18 other more financially successful films. It may climb another notch or two before it bows out of the multiplex, but that's about it.
3. Will the quarterly results impress a jaded market?
You might think that delivering a steady diet of earnings beats is a great way to stay ahead of the market. Well, I have some bad news for you. Here are the last four Disney financial updates.
| Quarter | EPS (estimate) | EPS (actual) | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $1.43 | $1.76 | 23% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.21 | $1.45 | 20% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.45 | $1.61 | 11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.02 | $1.11 | 8% |
Data source: Yahoo! Finance.
All four quarters in fiscal 2025 were clear beats. But if shareholders figured they would be winners -- being on the right side of analyst profit targets every quarter last year -- they were wrong. Disney stock has declined 2% over the past year. The last column is particularly interesting. The degree of the bottom-line surprises has been narrowing with every passing quarter.
Expectations are already pretty low heading into next week's release. Wall Street pros see revenue rising less than 4% to $25.6 billion, with earnings per share sliding 11% to $1.57. Disney has previously guided for double-digit earnings growth in fiscal 2026 and 2027. Analysts think that will still happen, but that the next three quarters will do the heavy lifting. Any softening of Disney's earnings guidance will sting, but a blowout report or a rosy outlook can do wonders for a neglected stock still waiting for its storybook ending.
