In the past five years, Walt Disney's (DIS +1.28%) share price has plummeted 39% (as of Feb. 4). Investors have every reason to complain about this disappointing performance. That's especially true since this business has a wide moat thanks to its intellectual property.
Perhaps the future will be better. Where will this consumer discretionary stock be in five years?
Image source: Getty Images.
Streaming will drive earnings growth
During the days of peak cable TV, Disney dominated. But in recent years, the business has had to navigate the cord-cutting trend, pressuring what was once a lucrative operation that raked in subscription and ad revenues.
Luckily, the company entered the streaming wars in November 2019, when Disney+ was launched. The service quickly ramped up. And as of Sept. 27, 2025, this platform and Hulu+ combined had 191 million global subscribers (excluding Hulu Live TV), giving it scale that only Netflix and Amazon Prime Video have.
The direct-to-consumer streaming segment is expected to rake in $500 million in operating income in the current quarter (Q2 2026). That's up significantly from a $2.9 billion operating loss in fiscal 2020. And with the recent launch of a flagship ESPN streaming service, it's a clear sign that Disney is positioned well in the new age of media and entertainment.
Five years from now, direct-to-consumer's profits will be much higher, while the cable networks will become less important to the financial picture.
Theme parks, cruises, and consumer products
Disney's experiences segment is on pace to be bigger in 2031. The division that houses theme parks, cruises, and consumer products reported $10 billion in revenue and $3.3 billion in operating income in Q1 (ended Dec. 27, 2025). Sales and profit growth have been durable, and this should continue.
After introducing a new cruise ship next month that will serve the Asia market, Disney plans to expand its fleet by five more ships after this fiscal year (for a total of 13). And there are expansion projects going on at all of its parks, with a new one coming to Abu Dhabi in the 2030s.
In September 2023, management announced a 10-year $60 billion investment to bolster the experiences segment. "For every one guest who visits a Disney Park, there are more than 10 people with Disney affinity who do not visit the Parks," the company said in a statement.
NYSE: DIS
Key Data Points
Investors may beat the market
A variable that can work to the benefit of investors is the valuation. Disney shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8.
What's more, the business is returning capital to shareholders. Besides its $0.75 semi-annual dividend, it's planning to buy back $7 billion worth of stock in fiscal 2026. This signals financial strength.
It wouldn't be surprising at all to see the House of Mouse beat the market over the next five years.
