Eli Lilly (LLY 2.29%) has already scored major accomplishments in the GLP-1 boom. The company has delivered double-digit revenue growth, taken leadership in the market, and seen its stock price explode higher. GLP-1 drugs have been in great demand as they've helped people quickly and safely shed pounds.
Now, though, after Lilly stock's 200% increase over three years, you may be wondering if the growth story has fully played out or if there's more to come. Could this pharma giant turn today's GLP-1 obesity drug boom into multi-decade, millionaire-maker gains? Let's find out.
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How GLP-1 drugs work
First, let's take a quick look at these popular treatments. GLP-1 drugs act on hormones involved in the digestion process, helping manage blood sugar levels and appetite. Today, with the exception of Novo Nordisk's recently released weight loss pill, GLP-1 drugs are taken in an injectable format.
Novo Nordisk makes semaglutide, commercialized as Ozempic for type 2 diabetes and as Wegovy for weight loss. And Lilly makes tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro for the former indication and Zepbound for the latter. Doctors, however, have been known to also prescribe Ozempic and Mounjaro off-label for patients aiming to lose weight. Novo recently won approval for Wegovy in pill form, and Lilly's oral weight loss candidate, orforglipron, currently is under regulatory review.
Novo was first to the GLP-1 market, but in recent years, Lilly has chipped away at its market share. Today, Lilly is the leader with more than 60% of the U.S. market. And Lilly's revenue has steadily climbed thanks to its strengths in the GLP-1 space. In the recent quarter, for example, Mounjaro and Zepbound each delivered triple-digit revenue gains and together brought in more than $11 billion.
Now, let's consider our question: Could Lilly turn this into a multi-decade millionaire-maker opportunity? It's very possible. Analysts expect the obesity drug market to reach nearly $100 billion by the end of the decade – and to continue to grow beyond that point.
NYSE: LLY
Key Data Points
Why Eli Lilly is a leader
Lilly has secured its leadership in the market thanks to the solid efficacy of its products -- for example, Zebpound beat the performance of Wegovy in a head-to-head trial. And the potential approval of orforglipron -- easier to take than oral Wegovy because it doesn't involve dietary restrictions -- could generate additional growth. On top of this, this top pharma player has a strong pipeline with other promising products such as phase 3 candidate retatrutide.
Though other companies, from Pfizer to Viking Therapeutics, aim to enter the market in the coming years, Lilly's lead and brand strength should keep revenue climbing well into the future -- and this could power more gains for the stock. I wouldn't expect Lilly, alone, to make you a millionaire, but as part of a diversified portfolio, this pharma stock could help you reach that goal.
