Shares of small modular (nuclear) power plant-builder NuScale Power (SMR 2.75%) stock tumbled 9.3% through 11:45 a.m. ET Wednesday.
You can blame Wall Street analyst TD Cowen for that.
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TD kicks NuScale to the curb
This morning, you see, TD Cowen analyst Marc Bianchi downgraded NuScale stock from buy to hold, warning of a negative catalyst that could soon damage the stock -- and add to the 36% losses NuScale investors have already suffered over the past year.
As Bianchi explains, NuScale customer Nuclearelectrica will make a Final Investment Decision (FID) on its Doicesti Romanian small modular reactor (SMR) project this week. Bianchi believes Nuclearelectrica will proceed with the project -- but shift some project risk onto NuScale, and push back closing to 2033 or even 2034. Recalling that the project completion date was last expected no later than 2030, this would be a significant setback -- and could significantly delay NuScale's scaling up revenue and achieving profitability.
Worse news for NuScale, Bianchi believes other nuclear utilities are using Doicesti as a test case, and "an important validation point for NuScale's commercial potential." They may base their own decisions on its success.
NYSE: SMR
Key Data Points
Is NuScale stock a sell?
Long story short: If Nuclearelectrica delays opening its SMR plant, there could be knock-on effects delaying the timelines for NuScale's several other customers. So what does this mean for NuScale investors?
At last report, most analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence expected NuScale to report its first profit in 2030 -- the same year Doicesti would open. If opening gets delayed three or four years, though, so might NuScale's profits. Given the risk, Bianchi says he cannot "assign a price target to NuScale given the early stage nature of the business."
