D-Wave Quantum (QBTS 4.34%) has been a standout in quantum computing for two reasons: Its share price has surged 255% over the past year, and it's one of a small number of quantum computing plays that actually generates revenue.
Those are both good things, and while I think D-Wave will continue to improve its revenue in 2026, it won't be enough to offset its losses. In fact, I predict that the company's share price surge over the past year isn't likely to continue. Here's more on that prediction, as well as another I have about D-Wave.
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1. Revenue will surge higher, but significant losses will remain
D-Wave deserves credit for significantly increasing its sales, including doubling revenue in Q3 2025 to $3.7 million. The company hasn't reported sales for the entire 2025 year yet, but the analysts' consensus estimate is for $25.6 million in revenue.
And more could be on the way this year. The consensus estimate for D-Wave's 2026 sales is nearly $43 million -- a 68% increase from 2025.
But even with sales marching higher (or, at least expected to), D-Wave is unlikely to make much progress closing the gap between its revenue and losses. That's because the company has been increasing its spending rapidly and will continue to do so this year. The company said on its Q3 earnings call that operating expenses will rise 15% in the fourth quarter, mostly for research and development (R&D).
Spending a lot of money in fields like quantum computing isn't unusual, but that doesn't mean it's great for shareholders either. D-Wave had a net loss of $140 million in Q3 compared to sales of just $3.7 million. That's a significant difference between the two, and with costs rising, 2026 will be more of the same for the company's losses.
NYSE: QBTS
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2. D-Wave's share price could fall significantly this year
D-Wave shareholders aren't going to like this prediction, but I think the stock could fall on hard times this year. The company's share price is already down 35% over the past three months, and there's one main reason it could continue to fall: Investors are ditching riskier stocks.
The pullback in D-Wave's stock over the past few months is part of a broader trend of investors leaving some risky tech stocks and cryptocurrencies in search of safer havens. Depending on who you ask, the reasons vary: Some are worried about geopolitical instability, others about an AI bubble, and others about the economy in general.
Whatever the specific reasons, I think we've entered a period when investors may only be willing to take on a little risk, if there are substantial sales and earnings to back it up. Many tech stocks have both, but D-Wave doesn't. Sales are rising, but the company isn't anywhere near profitable.
What's worse is that D-Wave's stock is very pricey. The company's shares have a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 237, compared to the tech sector average P/S ratio of 8. With investors already skittish, D-Wave's shares look poised to fall further this year.
