Many investors have been excited about Archer Aviation (ACHR 2.64%) and the company's potential in the expanding electric vehicle takeoff and landing (eVTOL) market, pushing Archer's shares up 153% over the past three years.
Given the company's current moves in the eVTOL space, here's where Archer may be in three years -- along with a few things potential investors should look out for.
Image source: Archer Aviation.
1. Revenue expectations for 2028 are high
Archer optimists will point out that the company has said it will have some full-scale commercial flights in Los Angeles by 2028, including flights under its deal to operate for the 2028 L.A. Olympics. The company could also have some flights beginning this year in Abu Dhabi that could expand over the next few years and generate sales.
What's more, Archer bulls will note that the company recently purchased the Hawthorne Airport near Los Angeles, which already has revenue and is profitable. However, it's worth pointing out that these sales don't have anything to do with the company's core eVTOL business.
Based on analysts' consensus estimates, Archer could have revenue of $967 million by the end of 2028, driven by its air taxi service and sales of its Midnight aircraft to customers.
But that seems like a very rosy estimate to me, considering Archer is likely to end 2025 with little to no eVTOL revenue (the company will report is annual results on March 2). The eVTOL market is very new, so estimating demand and calculating how many flights will actually occur annually involves a fair amount of guesswork right now.
2. More spending and no profits over the next three years
Archer isn't profitable right now, and it's unlikely that the company will be able to change that over the next three years. Archer's net loss on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis was nearly $130 million in Q3 2025, up about 13% from the year-ago quarter.
Archer has spent a lot of money to develop its aircraft tech and expand its business, and its expenses continue rising. Operating expenses increased 43% in the quarter to nearly $175 million. Archer has about $2 billion in total liquidity, which is enough to keep it running for a while, but the company has also made moves that aren't great for shareholders, like a $650 million capital raise from a stock sale that diluted existing shareholder value.
NYSE: ACHR
Key Data Points
Archer has a goal of producing 650 aircraft annually, but it's far short of that total right now. In mid-2025, the company had six aircraft in production and just three in the final stages.
Is Archer stock a buy?
While Archer may be making some progress toward its goals, there are too many drawbacks to overlook. Archer will end 2025 with little to no revenue, its costs are rising significantly, and the company isn't profitable.
Investors buying Archer right now are placing a big bet that the company's goals, and analysts' consensus estimates, will pan out. With expectations already high for Archer Aviation -- its share price is up 155% over the past three years -- and the company's underlying business still unproven, I think investors should sit this stock out for now.
