Investors recognize Nike (NKE 0.22%) as the leader in the global athletic apparel and footwear market. But it has been going through a rough patch in recent years -- shares are now trading 64% below their November 2021 peak (as of Feb. 16). But the company is still in the midst of a strategic pivot that is intended to return it to consistent sales and profit growth.
So if you invest $10,000 in this footwear stock now, could that position turn you into a millionaire one day?
Image source: Nike.
Trying to get back in the winner's circle
In Nike's fiscal 2026 (which will end in May), the consensus analyst estimate is that revenue will increase by less than 1%. Demand levels appear to be stabilizing.
Earnings per share are expected to decline 28%, according to the Wall Street consensus, as President Donald Trump's tariffs will add $1.5 billion to its annualized product costs, and an increase in wholesale revenues is putting pressure on the company's margins. A tanking profit base clearly isn't indicative of a thriving business. Instead, it reflects one that's going through a difficult transition.
Nike is re-focusing on the areas that solidified its position atop the industry. This means bringing fresh products, centered around sports, to people around the world. It is also attempting to realign with its retail partners -- something it shifted away from during the COVID-19 pandemic, when it focused heavily on its direct-to-customer e-commerce channels. The business is leaning on its marketing prowess to connect with customers.
Nike's key competitive asset
The fashion industry is not always kind to the companies that operate in it. The biggest challenge is skating to where the puck will be in terms of changing consumer tastes.
To Nike's credit, it has stood the test of time, so the business should have a better handle on things than most when it comes to catering to people's evolving preferences. The brand deserves to be in the spotlight. This durable competitive advantage will buy the company time to figure things out and get back on a stronger footing. It just might take longer than the Nike bulls hope.
NYSE: NKE
Key Data Points
The chance of achieving a 100-fold return is slim
For the value of the shares to rise 100-fold from $10,000 to $1 million in a relatively reasonable time frame -- let's say 25 years -- would require an annualized growth rate of about 20%.
Unfortunately, I don't think Nike will be able to do this. It's a mature company, and even after its slide, it carries a market cap of around $97 billion, so its long-term growth prospects aren't the same as when it was a younger, smaller business.
That doesn't necessarily mean that investors should turn away from the stock. Should Nike start to make more substantial progress with its turnaround efforts, and revenue and earnings start to grow sustainably, then it might make sense to consider buying the stock with a five-year time horizon. Just don't expect Nike to turn you into a millionaire.
